2/18/14

Israel and Palestine

Israeli vs Palestine Refugees - In, Out and No Return

Author: Ari Rusila

One element by solving Israeli-Palestinian conflict is the question of refugees or better their right to return. When the "refugee issue" is discussed within the context of the Middle East, people invariably refer to Palestinian refugees, not Jews displaced from Arab countries. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Israel has launched a new international campaign entitled "I am a refugee". The purpose of the campaign is to increase international awareness of a little-known refugee group - Jewish refugees from Arab countries.

Before 1948 nearly one million Jews lived in the MENA region (Middle-East & North Africa) outside of the sc Brittish Palestinian mandate; after a half decade only few thousand were left. A documentary movie "The Forgotten Refugees" gives some background to these Jewish communities in the Great Middle East.

Wider context of the Refugee question in MENA

Thriving, prosperous Jewish communities existed in the Middle East and North Africa ( aka MENA region) a thousand years before the rise of Islam and more than 2500 years before the birth of the modern Arab nations. These communities, which extended from Iraq in the east to Morocco in the west, enjoyed a lively fabric of life and were influential in the local economies. Until the 10th century C.E., 90% of the world's Jews lived in regions now known as Arab countries.

On Nov. 29, 1947, the UN voted to partition then British-Mandate Palestine into two states: one Jewish, one Arab. Two states for two peoples. The Jewish population accepted that plan and declared a new state in its ancient homeland but the Arab inhabitants rejected the plan and launched a war of annihilation against the new Jewish state, joined by the armies of five Arab members of the UN. As a result of the war, there were Arabs who became refugees. Also following the declaration of the Jewish state antisemitism and anti-Jewish riots broke out in the Middle East and North Africa ( aka MENA region) and many Jews were driven from their homes - between 1948 and 1952, 856,000 Jews from Arab countries became refugees.

Every year the Palestinians are commemorating sc Nakba (catastrophe) Day, on which they remember the disaster that befell them in 1948, when they lost their war against Zionism and two-thirds of them were displaced from their homes, becoming refugees. While it is perfectly natural for the Palestinians to commemorate their national tragedy, the date they have chosen carries a clear political-ideological message, and it is not one that will encourage would-be Middle East peacemakers.

Besides humanitarian aspect I could mention an economic one too. In a recent conference "Justice for Jewish Refugees from Arab Countries" Dr. Stanley Urman, the executive director of Justice for Jews from Arab Countries, noted that Jewish refugees lost property worth $700 million (around $6 billion in today's terms ), while Palestinian refugees lost property worth about $450 million (around $3.9 billion in today's terms ). Since 1950, he said, Palestinian refugees have received $13.7 billion in U.N. funding, whereas Jewish refugees have received just $35,000. (Source Haaretz )

UNRWA – the never-ending mission

At least two aspects explain why there are still refugees after more than six decades:

  • First is Arab leaders' recalcitrance to accept their brethren and refusing to absorb the Palestinian refugees.
  • Second the United Nations created a separate agency - UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) - with unique principles and criteria.

According UNRWA criteria the refugee status is given not only to the original refugees whose normal place of residence was Palestine between June 1946 and May 1948, who lost their homes as a result of the 1948 Arab-Israeli conflict AND their descendants in the male line. So it isn't just the first generation that is entitled to this aid, as is the norm for all other refugees the United Nations helps, now the fifth generation is also entitled.

Originally UNRWA was established as a temporary agency. One motivation to agency's refugee definations might be economic aspect. An article "Palestinians Refugees Forever" in Haaretz gives following background:

UNRWA states that the Palestinians are occupied - indefinitely. UNRWA has financial and political interests in maintaining this fiction: as long as the Palestinians are refugees, UNRWA is in business. Of the 30,000 people that UNRWA employs, the vast majority are Palestinian: UNRWA is the largest single employer of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. Contrast this to the UN High Commission for Refugees, that only employs 5-6,000 people globally, and which focuses far more clearly on resettlement and rehabilitation of refugees and building new lives, and not on maintaining services that prop up the status quo. 

Refugees without agency

Millions of Germans who had lived in the Sudetenland and were kicked out at the end of WWII (3 years before 1948). They were not allowed to return and they are no longer refugees because Germany absorbed them. Finland settled some 10 % of its population from territories occupied by the Soviet Union, which from its side transferred new population to new regions. Around 45,000 Hungarians were deported from Czechoslovakia to Hungary, while around 72,000 Slovaks transferred from Hungary to Czechoslovakia, and they are no longer refugees either. Hundreds of thousands of Cypriots who were kicked out of their homes were also not allowed to go back to them, and they are no longer refugees because their fellow nationals on the other side of the island absorbed them.

One aspect with "right of return" should now be highlighted: A recent ruling by the European court of human rights declared that due to the time that had elapsed, Greek refugees expelled from northern Cyprus in 1974 would not be allowed to return to their homes. Now while, tiny Israel absorbed the Jewish refugees, but the vast Arab world not the Palestinian refugees – defined by unique UNRWA criteria – the discussion of "right to return" has so far been quite one-sided.

Israeli point of view

Earlier Israel's Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Danny Ayalon published his view in informative video "The Truth About the Refugees" explaining the historical facts relating to the issue of refugees in the Israeli Palestinian conflict.  This video also highlights the issue of the Jewish refugees who were forced out of their homes in the Arab world, and were subsequently absorbed by the State of Israel.

Organisation "Jews Indigenous to the Middle East and North Africa" ( JIMENA ) has completed their first comprehensive country specific websites about refugee issue.

My Conclusion

Unsolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict squanders resources which in more peaceful circumstances could be used for capacity building of civil societies. Keeping refugee question and land dispute on the top of their agenda Palestinian Authorities favor temporary solutions and relief instead of building more permanent institutions. On Israeli side the defense and security takes more and more resources, e.g one Iron Dome missile to drop one Quassam rocket costs nearly $ 100.000. Then there is also a question about effectiveness of foreign aid, but that is the other story outside the issue of this article (see e.g Placebo effect for people and society with 20 bn bucks).

In my opinion the Palestinian refugees should be rehabilitated in their place of residence just as the Jewish refugees were rehabilitated in theirs - Israel. There should be an immediate discontinuation of the perpetuation of the Palestinian refugee issue. The rehabilitation process implemented this way would minimize the demand for the "right of return" during peace talks so one problem less in agenda.  Sure few years ago there was a preliminary agreement about Palestine returns in Israel but the number was rather symbolic ( 5.000 ).  In any case the insistence of some Palestinian refugees to be given a right of return will be resolved by their immigration into the future Palestinian state that will be established through a peace agreement.

In my opinion the refugee problem described above has some similarities with situation in Serbia after Balkan wars. In Serbia still lives over 200.000 refugees and IDPs (internally displaced persons). Like return of Jews back to Arab countries, like return of Palestinians to Israel or West-Bank as well return of Serbs back to Croatia or Kosovo the numbers of returns are insignificant e.g due security reasons. From my point of view to solve refugee/IDP problem the rehabilitation process in the place of residence is good alternative and international aid should be redirected e.g towards effective housing programs instead of keeping alive unrealistic dreams about going back to square one.

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Out of Topic: Epilogue Lite

Article Source: http://www.articlesbase.com/politics-articles/israeli-vs-palestine-refugees-in-out-and-no-return-6202445.html

About the Author

Ari Rusila is a development project management expert and freelancer from Finland with a special interest in the Balkan region. His other interests include civil crisis management issues, EU external relations, North Black Sea region and middle East. His main blog including document library is Ari Rusila's BalkanBlog

Syria War in Details

U.S. Recycles Its Old Balkan Practice With Syria

Author: Ari Rusila

The Syrian rebellion began in earnest on March 11, 2011, when protests erupted. Since then, the conflict has become increasingly violent. About 70,000 people have died in the country's civil war over the past two years. Millions of people have been displaced, both internally and abroad. For months regional and Western capitals have officially held back on arming the rebels, in part out of fear that the weapons would fall into the hands of terrorists.

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Now however U.S. has begun to support arms delivery to Syrian opposition with recycling its old practice in Balkans. Multiple planeloads (some estimates are up to 160 cargoplanes, 3,500 tn) of weapons have left Croatia since December 2012, when many Yugoslav weapons, previously unseen in the Syrian civil war, began to appear in videos posted by rebels on YouTube. Saudi Arabia has financed a large purchase of infantry weapons from Croatia and quietly funneled them to antigovernment fighters in Syria. American intelligence officers have helped the shipment with their earlier practice during Balkan wars. Earlier compared with the heavy weaponry employed by the Syrian regime, most of the equipment of Free Syrian Army (FSA) has been light so now the game is changing.

Photo credit NYT In Syria, a recoilless gun from the former Yugoslavia.

Photo credit The New York Times

Some foreign arms have been making their way to the Syrian opposition; the vast majority of guns were bought right from the regime - corrupt regime officials sold them. Another portion of their weapons was bought off the black market from Turkey or Jordan, which made them very expensive.

The opposition began as a secular struggle to overthrow the Assad regime. But many of the loosely linked brigades fighting the Assad regime have incorporated Islamist aims into their mission. These groups range from moderately Islamist outfits such as Liwaa al-Tawhid to more conservative groups such as Ahrar al-Sham, whose members have called for the countrywide implementation of Shariah, or Islamic law. There are also jihadist groups such as Jabhat al-Nusra (JAN), which operates as an extension of al Qaeda's Iraqi franchise and has been declared a terrorist organization by the U.S. JAN boasts foreign connections and members with years of fighting experience, making them invaluable to the uprising.

Officially besides about $385 million in humanitarian aid has been disbursed by the U.S., there is an additional $115 million in nonlethal support for the fighters. On the other hand U.S. (unofficial) decision to send in more weapons is aimed at another fear in the West about the role of jihadist groups in the opposition. Such groups have been seen as better equipped than many nationalist fighters and potentially more influential. U.S. is covertly working to get those weapons into the right hands. Western officials agree that helping Syrian rebels defeat the brutal Assad regime is a worthwhile cause, but recent reports suggest some of that assistance has already benefited jihadist groups - e.g. JAN fighters have been using weapons originating in Croatia. (Sources: NYT , IBT , Debkafile)

Weapons from Croatia

"A conservative estimate of the payload of these flights would be 3,500 tons of military equipment"  (Hugh Griffiths, SIPRI, who monitors illicit arms transfers)

Persian Gulf states such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia have been orchestrating weapons shipments into the conflict for months. Weapons from the former Yugoslavia were spotted in Syria this winter, after a series of military cargo flights from Zagreb to Amman. The arms are typically sent to Turkey and shipped into Syria via ground transport. The airlift, which began on a small scale in early 2012 and continued intermittently through last fall, expanded into a steady and much heavier flow late last year, the data shows. It has grown to include more than 160 military cargo flights by Jordanian, Saudi and Qatari military-style cargo planes landing at Esenboga Airport near Ankara, and, to a lesser degree, at other Turkish and Jordanian airports. Also from Jordan and Turkey, trucks take the weapons to the border with Syria.

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The below video posted by the jihadist group Ahrar al-Sham, a collection of various smaller groups based in the north of Syria, mainly around Idlib, Aleppo, and Hama, and not part of the Free Syrian Army, demonstrates that the Yugoslavian weapons - supplied via Croatia - being provided to FSA have now begun to reach the hands of jihadists. These include RBG-6 40mm grenade launcher , the M79 Osa rocket launcher, M79 rocket pods, Yugoslav-made recoilless gun, as well as other assault rifles, grenade launchers, machine guns, mortars and shoulder-fired rockets for use against tanks and armored vehicles.

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uVvZVUPLhLE&feature=player_embedded #!

One should add that Croatia's Foreign Ministry and arms-export agency has denied that such shipments had occurred. Croatia, poised this year to join the European Union, now strictly adheres to international rules on arms transfers. However, export figures obtained by the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) show that last December, Jordan suddenly began buying Croatian weapons.

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The M79 Osa, an anti-tank weapon of Yugoslav origin, seized from Syria's opposition.

MLRS in Syria too?

On March 2013 Syrian rebels in Aleppo have begun receiving their first heavy weapons – 220-mm MLRS rocket launchers – from a large-scale supply operation headed by Saudi intelligence chief Prince Bandar bin Sultan. According Debkafile in Serbia, Bosnia, Croatia and Kosovo, his agents produced snapped up Russian-made MLRS (Smerch) and Hurricane 9K57 launchers capable of firing scores of 220-mm rockets to a distance of 70 kilometers.

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Image shows a M60 recoilless gun being used to attack an army outpost,Hajez Barad, in Busr al-Harir, Daraa, on March 2nd.

The Saudi operation for shipping heavy rocket launchers from the Balkans to Aleppo is complicated. The rockets are fixed to vehicles weighing 43.7 tons each. The rockets themselves are 7.6 meters long and weigh 800 kilograms. To arrange the transfer of this heavy artillery to the rebels in Aleppo, Prince Bandar contacted Hakan Fidan, head of the MIT-Turkish National Intelligence Organization. They agreed to set up an overland route from the Balkans via Turkey and across the Syrian border to Aleppo, under the protection of the Turkish army.

It may be that Syrian rebels have now also the BM-30 Smerch (tornado), the most powerful multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) in the world. It was developed in the early 1980s and was accepted to service with the Soviet Army in 1987. It is also in service with Belarus and the Ukraine, and has been exported to Kuwait (27 systems) and Algeria (18 systems).India placed an order for an initial 38 systems. Deliveries began in May 2007.

I have some doubts how this Russian made MLRS has came from Croatia. First only one source (Debkafile) indicates so, second I don't have any confirmation that this system was for sale in Balkans, third some youtube videos from Syria which I have seen about this MLRS are so unclear that the queastion could be about some similar type of MLRS.

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The heavy MLRS rocket launcher in Syrian rebel hands

Former Yugoslavia had three types of MLRS: M 63 Plamen(32 /128),M 77 Ogan(32/128) and M 87 Orkan(12/262) which was produced in cooperation with Iraq and army of Iraq used this system. The M87 Orkan (hurricane) is a MLRS, jointly developed by Yugoslavia and Iraq. Most of development was made in Yugoslavia and some manufacturing took place in Iraq. It was first publicly revealed in 1988 during defense exhibition in Iraq, labeled as the Ababil-50. The Orkan MLRS project was finished in the early 1990s due to collapse of the Yugoslavia and it is estimated that only few system were built. The most modern – 2011 - MLRS in Balkans is LRSVM, which is a modular self-propelled multitube rocket launch system developed by Serbia-based Vazduhoplovno Tehnicki Institut (VTI). Also Abu Dhabi's Emirates Defense Technologies (EDT) has developed, manufactured and delivered the first unit of the MLRS, which was designed and manufactured locally in UAE but in collaboration with a leading Serbian defence contractor. Perhaps some of these are now in operation theatre.

Aleppo is the key to win

The Saudi operation for shipping heavy rocket launchers from the Balkans to Aleppo is complicated. The rockets are fixed to vehicles weighing 43.7 tons each. The rockets themselves are 7.6 meters long and weigh 800 kilograms. To arrange the transfer of this heavy artillery to the rebels in Aleppo, Prince Bandar contacted Hakan Fidan, head of the MIT-Turkish National Intelligence Organization. They agreed to set up an overland route from the Balkans via Turkey and across the Syrian border to Aleppo, under the protection of the Turkish army.

On the other hand Russia brings down its cargo planes loaded with weapons and replacement parts for the Syrian army at Nairab air base attached to Aleppo's international air port, after the air facilities around Damascus were targeted by rebel fire. Recently Russian and Iranian arms lifts to Nairab were doubled, after rebels seized many Alawite villages in the Aleppo and Idlib regions of northern Syria.

The Saudis hope to expedite the rebel capture of the big Syrian Nairab air base attached to Aleppo's international air port. The Saudi prince has personally taken the Nairab battle under his wing, convinced that it is the key to the conquest of Aleppo, once Syria's national commercial and population center, after more than a year's impasse in the battle for its control. The fall of this air base would also substantially reduce the big Iranian and Russian airlifts to Assad's army. Moscow has since warned the rebels that if they attack incoming or outgoing Russian planes at Nairab, Russian special forces will come in to wipe out their strength around the base and take over its protection themselves.

U.S., Croatia and common history of clandestine operations

It is not surprising that U.S. is using Croatia for its clandestine operations. Radical Islam has enforced and widened their activities in Balkans last 15 years. During Bosnian war many foreign Islamists came to fight in mujahedeen brigade also many Al Quida figures – including Osama bin Laden – were supporting Bosnian Muslims 1990's. US took the side with these "freedom fighters" in Bosnia and later in Kosovo. US involvement in the Balkans is not about helping any of the people in the region -- Muslims, Croats, Serbs, or Albanians. The only interest of the Pentagon is in creating weak, dependent puppet regimes in order to dominate the entire region economically and politically.

In the 1980s Washington's secret services had assisted Saddam Hussein in his war against Iran. Then, in 1990, the US fought him in the Gulf. n both Afghanistan and the Gulf, the Pentagon had incurred debts to Islamist groups and their Middle Eastern sponsors. By 93 these groups, many supported by Iran and Saudi Arabia, were anxious to help Bosnian Muslims fighting in the former Yugoslavia and called in their debts with the Americans. Bill Clinton and the Pentagon were keen to be seen as creditworthy and repaid in the form of an Iran-Contra style operation - in flagrant violation of the UN Security Council arms embargo against all combatants in the former Yugoslavia.

The recent history of this issue in Balkans started in June 1993, when President Clinton received the head of the Saudi Arabian intelligence service, Prince Turki al Faisal - a close adviser to his uncle, the King. The Prince urged Clinton to take the lead in the military assistance to Bosnia. The American administration did not dare to do so: the fear of a rift within NATO was too great. However, the United States did consider the Saudi Arabian signal to be important, and therefore a new strategy was elaborated. Its architect was to be Richard Holbrooke, who started to look for a way to arm the Bosnian Muslims. In the summer of 1993, the Pentagon was said to have drawn up a plan for arms assistance to the Bosnian Muslim Army (ABiH), which included supplies of AK-47s and other small arms. This operation was to demand almost three hundred C-130 Hercules transport aircraft flights.The first consignment from Iran landed in Zagreb on 4 May 1994, with sixty tons of explosives and military equipment on board. The arms were transported in Croatian army trucks along the Adriatic coast to Bosnia. Because the supplies attracted too much attention at Pleso Airport in Zagreb, the flights subsequently went mainly to the Croatian island of Krk. Shortly after Iranian cargo aircraft had landed there, a number of Croatian helicopters arrived to continue transporting the load after dusk.

In the summer and autumn of 1994 plans were elaborated for training the ABiH. An US 'mercenary outfit' was to arrange this training. This was carried out by Military Professional Resources Incorporated (MPRI), a company based in Virginia that employed various retired American generals and intelligence officials. With the consent of the State Department, MPRI trained the Hrvatska Vojska (HV, the Croatian Army) and later also the ABiH. MPRI's role arose from the signing of the agreement between the United States and Croatia on military collaboration. By engaging MPRI, Washington also reduced the danger of 'direct' involvement. The CIA settled on 14,000 tons between May 1994 and December 1996. According to the State Department from May 1994 to January 1996 Iran delivered a total of 5000 tons of arms and ammunition via the Croatian pipeline to Bosnia. (Source Bill Clinton's Bastard Army by Ares Demertzis ,Feb. 2009 in New English Review)

Links between drug trafficking and the supply of arms to the KLA (Kosovo Liberation Army) were established also mid-90s. In West KLA was described as terrorist organization but when US selected them as their ally it transformed organization officially to "freedom" fighters. After bombing Serbia 1999 KLA leaders again changed their crime clans officially to political parties. This public image however can not hide the origins of money and power, old channels and connections are still in place in conservative tribe society.

Assad is not the only war criminal

Reports of a chemical weapon attack in Syria's Aleppo Province end of March 2013 provoked leaders and politicians, particularly in the West, to advocate more fiercely for the overthrow of the Assad regime, despite the vague details surrounding the attack. Current data seem to suggest, however, that it was not government forces behind the attack, but rebel forces.The attack, intelligence sources appear to agree, was launched by rebel fighters and not government forces. Since the victims were overwhelmingly the Syrian military, this was not a huge shock, but is important to reiterate. Likewise, the Assad forces called upon the United Nations to launch an investigation into the attack.

Last October 2012, the rebel forces were responsible for four suicide bombings in Aleppo that killed approximately 40 civilians and wounded many more. Jebhat al-Nusra, a group linked to al-Qaeda, has taken credit for the bombings. Additionally, the rebels were also responsible for the massacre of over 90 people in Houla last year. Immediately following that event, the U.S., France, Great Britain, and Germany blamed Assad for the killings and expelled Syria's ambassadors from their countries in protest. Later reports, however, pointed to evidence that the massacre was in fact carried out by anti-Assad rebel forces.

From the other side Iranian supplies are what keep Assad's army functioning and his regime in Damascus and other Syrian towns able to survive the rebellion. Iraqi Al Qaeda is also preparing to push trucks loaded with Chlorine gas-CI trucks into Syria for the jihadists to use against Assad's forces. U.S. has been unable to persuade Iraq cut short the Iranian airlift and land route through his country to Bashar Assad of weapons, fighters and cash.

From my point of view it remains to see if this newest U.S. clandestine recycling operation has better success that earlier in Balkans, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya … I doubt.

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Article Source: http://www.articlesbase.com/politics-articles/us-recycles-its-old-balkan-practice-with-syria-6533171.html

About the Author

Ari Rusila is a development project management expert and freelancer from Finland with a special interest in the Balkan region. His other interests include civil crisis management issues, EU external relations, North Black Sea region and middle East. His main blog including document library is Ari Rusila's BalkanBlog

2/3/14

Iranian Revolution

Causes and Perceptions of the 1979 Iranian Revolution

Author: Alana Blumenthal

The varied factors leading to the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979, and those that led foreign governments to consider the events as an "intelligence failure," stem in equal parts from the cultures and the individuals involved.  Powerful personalities like Mohammad Reza Shah and Ayatollah Ruhollah Moosavi Khomeini certainly played impressive roles in this political upheaval, yet one cannot forget the equally forceful activities of the average Iranian.  Equally, with its millennia of rich governmental history, Persia provides an intricate backdrop for intrigue.  However, the region serves as a keystone between the Eastern and Western worlds, and as such its fate is inextricably linked to the policies and actions of foreign powers, as has been the case arguably since the first Western conquest by Alexander of Macedonia in 330BCE.  A fundamental key in understanding the context for the rapid success of the revolutionary movement in Iran is the nature of the country, its culture, and its people.  Many aspects of the Iranian worldview differ from that of the Western observer in a way that makes it hard for Americans to understand the widespread support for governmental upheaval. 

Iran, formerly Persia, has arguably the longest tradition of continual centralized leadership, one that is dominated by the legacies of conquest and foreign control.  This instability and internal discord had an effect on the Iranian psyche, both positively and negatively.  While it creates strong cultural currents of nationalism, individualism, and pragmatism, it also breeds paranoia, egotism, and a dependence on authoritarian leadership.  This lack of extended generational leadership also results in a very fluid social hierarchy, wherein a soldier may easily become a king and a king an outcast, as in the case of Reza Shah.  As a result, there is a lack of distinction between the expectations for the behavior of king or commoner, and each is wary of the other's intentions.  Therefore, it is considered quotidian that leaders should mistrust their subjects' loyalty and willingness to support the state; and the populace equally is reluctant to believe the integrity of promises made by their rulers.  Indeed, unlike in Western culture it is in no way hypocritical for an Iranian to publicly acclaim policies which he is known to privately denounce, merely polite.  In such a society, one of the highest shows of skill and savvy is the successful conduct of intrigue and conspiracy.  (Amuzegar, 103)

Additionally, it is a culture that, since its intellectual and economic decline around 1200CE, has looked to the past for models of an idealized society.  This is a concept with which Americans constantly struggle, since it is a complete contradiction of the ideology that strives toward an undefined utopian future and actively disregards the examples of the past.  This, perhaps, is why Western powers, and even the Westernized Shah, failed to anticipate that the revolution would favor a return to Islamic rule and Sharia law.  For the majority of Iranians in the mid-seventies, the glorious example of past success to aspire to was the rise and expansion of Islamic power.  Although Islam began in what is now Saudi Arabia, the Shiite majority in Iran views the period after the conquest of Persia as central to their religious identity.  This same tenet, sanctifying the succession of Imams that began with Ali, encourages Shiite Muslims to identify one man as supreme ruler of all the faithful.  Until the return of the "Hidden Imam," any secular political leader is tolerated, but considered secondary to the authority of the clerics. (Bozeman, 391)   This belief has been consistent in Iranian government since the seventh century, including a legal validation in the 1906 constitution allowing any law passed to be overturned if a religious authority deemed it "unislamic."  Since the combination of secular administration and Islamic principle in Iran after the conquest, Ayatollahs have incited revolutions against any Shah proclaimed to violate religious decrees, which traditionally serve as direct evaluations of the leader.  (Shawcross, 111)

            Despite his attraction to Western culture, Mohammad Reza Shah embodied many of the essential Iranian characteristics and traditions.  In conducting government affairs he was highly independent, often failing to consult his advisors or even the parliament.  He was also defined by his paranoia, investing billions of dollars in military development and instituting internal security measures against perceived threats.  Additionally, he was fascinated with the nation's past, although he wished to revive the period of the Persian, rather than Islamic, Empire.  Like his father, Mohammad Reza Shah saw definite parallels between his dynasty and that of Cyrus and Darius.  The trajectory of his kingship mimicked that Darius in many ways.  Mohammad Shah's father had united the region under a popular ruler, and he used the newly achieved central authority to pour money into public works and modernization projects.  Mohammad Shah did all that he could to emphasize these similarities, including the elaborate and somewhat infamous international summit held at Persepolis, the seat of power for the first Persian Empire.  The final irony was that he was also the second and last ruler in his empire's succession, Darius having been defeated and replaced by Alexander of Macedonia, who later burnt the palace at Persepolis to the ground.

Perhaps similar to Darius, Mohammad Shah lived and led in the shadow of his dynamic and forceful father.  As a child, he was encouraged to favor military might rather than formal education, since Reza Shah viewed this as the reason behind his sweeping success against the Qajar dynasty.  This strict upbringing, in combination with the aforementioned attributes of the Iranian worldview, contributed to the highly discussed personality traits of the controversial Shah of Shahs.  Yet unlike his father, he was unable to balance the power with the necessities of monarchy in many ways.  Insecurity was so central to his character that one of his courtiers would make the comparison, "that Reza Shah was a man to whom no one dared lie.  With his son, no one dared to tell the truth."  (Shawcross, 34)  This powerful and eventually destructive insecurity also had roots in the economy of Iran during the latter portion of Mohammad Reza Shah's reign.  As a stubbornly independent autocrat, he held almost complete control over the designation of the nation's vast wealth of newly acquired petrodollars.  As a result, after 1971 the small faction of external and internal contacts with the Shah who had remained honest with him on matters of policy steadily decreased.  Courtiers and foreign representatives alike found it in their best interest to flatter and support him in return for better chances at receiving their share of the money being spent as rapidly as it was earned.  (Shawcross, 48)  In the case of the foreign powers, this proved an example of realpolitik at its most short-sighted.  The reluctance of friendly nations such as France and the United States to attempt to advise the Shah against overextension and unwise spending habits contributed to the downfall of a major ally in their foreign policies.

In addition to his self-sufficient/paranoid aspect, Mohammad Reza Shah also had a dichotomous tendency towards a perception of invincibility.  Having survived a number of illnesses as a child and a series of assassination attempts as king, Mohammad Shah held a belief that God approved of him and his authority throughout his adult life.  The major turning point in his allowing this belief to overwhelm political reality came in 1953, when a failed attempt by his Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadeq to oust him saw him exiled, resulting in a popular outcry for his return to restore order to the nation.  He was later noted as considering this as a moment of inspiration for his later autocratic behavior.  Before 1953, he understood himself as a hereditary sovereign; after his return, he believed he was an elected ruler with the mandate of the people.  (Shawcross, 72)  In a way, this made him a confident leader, who theoretically would have defended his government against any and all conflicts by a tendency towards self-preservation.  However, the opposite occurred in what might be attributed to an overestimation of himself and his support system.  In an interview given to an American reporter in June of 1978, he firmly declared that, "nobody can overthrow me.  I have the support of 700,000 troops, all the workers, and most of the people.  I have the power."  (Amuzegar, 224)  Instead of fighting to preserve this sense of divine and popular approval of his right to lead, he allowed it to overwhelm his judgment and in essence leave him defenseless. 

It is, of course, an injustice to Mohammad Reza Shah, who ruled Iran for 37 years, to depict only the negative qualities.  As previously mentioned, he, like all Iranians, possessed also the positive attributes associated with individualism, ambition, and political prudence, and these in fact led to great advancements in Iranian infrastructure and society under his direction.  However, for the sake of this argument, focusing on those factors that contributed to the Iranian revolution, these negative aspects possess the most relevance.  A major part of the Shah's negative image resulted from his complicated relationship with Western powers.  He constantly attempted to separate himself from nations like England and the United States due to their general unpopularity in Iran.  Yet despite this outward obstinance, he was almost cripplingly dependant on their material and moral aid, a reliance that ironically increased concomitantly with his belief in his internal support. Both psychological phenomena occurred after 1953, and it is worthwhile to examine briefly the events of that period in order to better understand the behavior of the Shah in 1979.

As Mohammad Mossedeq gained more power and support through the parliamentary grant of "emergency powers," the Shah became increasingly upset and confused, and he looked to English and American officials for advice.  One report, a collaboration between American and British intelligence, identified Mohammad Reza Shah in 1952 as, "aware of the communist danger, but vacillating and weak.  Recently he has showed himself to be too easily swayed by Mossadeq's threats."  (Shawcross, 64)  In attempt to strengthen the Shah's determination, a number of international figures extended informal support for him against the powerful Prime Minister.  The varied responses he received set in his mind an unrealistic precedent for the extent to which the international community would be willing to support him.  Winston Churchill, through the American Ambassador Loy Henderson, extended reassurances of the two nations' commitment to his reign.  Still, the American and British reactions were dualistic at best.  Even Churchill's message exemplified this diplomatic ambiguity when he said, "While we do not interfere in Persian politics, we should be very sorry to se the Shah driven out."  (Shawcross, 66)  This only aggravated the Shah's already acute insecurities, and in combination with his exclusion from Operation Ajax he became convinced that England was part of the actions against him, similar to their replacement of the Qajar dynasty with his father.  As a result, he took little initiative in combating the growing internal dissent.

In the end, the coup against Mossadeq succeeded only due to the intervention of the CIA and MI6, largely because of the conservative leanings of the governments at that time and their determination to prevent Iran from falling into the Communist sphere of influence.  This reality has serious implications for our understanding of the events of the Islamic revolution in 1979, in that it formed contrasting opinions between the Shah and the general population as to his relationship with the Western powers.  As Henry Kissinger explained, "One of the reasons for the Shah's progressive demoralization was his very real doubt whether we were actually supporting him.  He certainly had the means at his disposal to resist more strenuously than he did.  And he chose not to exercise them because he must have had doubts about our real intentions."  (Shawcross, 152) By 1977, Mohammad Shah truly believed that the discord was being sown by the West as a response to some unknown affront he must have committed.  He theorized that England may still harbor resentment about the nationalization of oil that cut their profits from the region, or that perhaps the Americans were planning to sacrifice him as part of a separate peace with the USSR.  In his mind, the revolutionary movement was too well organized to be the product of internal forces, and therefore the means by which he tried to stop it included offering appeasements to England and the United States rather than focusing on his domestic policies.  (Amuzegar, 80)  Ultimately, this backfired, resulting in a much more rapid and confident revolutionary movement.

Much of the lack of internal response stemmed from the fluctuation of use of what Kissinger referred to as the "means at his disposal."  Here he is discussing the Savak, the Iranian intelligence and enforcement community, which was also a direct result of the 1953 experience and the Western reaction. Savak served as the intellectual descendant to the "eyes and ears of the king," a system of proto-intelligence agents that operated under Darius during the Persian Empire.  However, there were very few actual parallels between the modern organization and its ancient model.  Trained by the CIA and Mossad, Savak was in practice far more interested in the bureaucratic and enforcement aspects of their mission than in actual intelligence gathering.  Additionally they, under the close direction of the Shah, were entirely preoccupied by eliminating the Tudeh party, the communist element in Iran, instead of trying to discern all of the internal networks, particularly the Islamist groups, which proved far more capable of inciting revolution.  They also failed to gauge the extent of dissatisfaction with the regime amongst the general population, largely because of their tactic of targeting individual members instead of infiltrating groups and identifying the central leadership.  (Amuzegar, 167) 

The final failure of Savak resulted from the Shah's characteristic confusion when deciding on a policy concerning their actions.  As part of his designs for Iran becoming a Westernized, egalitarian society, the Shah began to reduce the violent aspects of his security network.  However, he chose a disastrous time to do so, arguably because he believed that this would ingratiate him to the Western nations and convince them to come to his aid.  Had he remembered the soothing words of Winston Churchill, he may have behaved differently.   Churchill had advised him that, "It is the duty of a constitutional monarch or president when faced with violent tyrannical action by individuals or a minority party to take the necessary steps to secure the well-being of the toiling masses and the continuity of an ordered state."  (Shawcross, 66)  Instead, through his "liberalization" policy he eradicated the highly controversial extra-legal powers of the Savak, which infuriated its members to the extent that they began participating in and even inciting riots "in order to teach the monarch a lesson."  (Amuzegar, 168)  The major flaw in his plan occurred in the aftermath of the September 8 protests and what became known as Black Friday.  After a huge outcry arose against the regime for the declaration of martial law and the killings of dozens of protesters, the Shah reversed his decision.  He opted for a more humanitarian route, ordering that security forces no longer fire upon demonstrators under any circumstances.  The people soon realized the implications of this, and often taunted the officers.  Ultimately, leaders of the revolutionary movement mistook this act of appeasement as one of surrender, and thereby encouraged even more rapid and vehement measures against the government.  (Zonis, 590)  The Shah's inconsistency not only failed to prevent, but also even precipitated his own downfall.

It was the failure of Savak and more importantly of Mohammad Reza Shah himself to understand the attitudes of the population that brought the government to such a weakened position by 1978-1979.  By that point, antipathy towards the Shah and his rule characterized nearly every faction of Iranian society, creating allies amongst otherwise ideologically inconsistent demographics.  Religious and secular, elite, middle-class, and poor, all felt that their lives and their country was worse for Mohammad Reza Shah's influence.  The most vocal of these discontented groups, as in any society, was the educated youth.  The typical cynicism and mistrust of these young men was exacerbated in a culture distinguished for its high perception of injustice stemming from an easy disillusionment with individual leaders.  Yet the people certainly needed some justification for upheaval other than a simple propensity towards dissension, and the Shah undeniably provided ample provocation.  Unfortunately, many of the perceived affronts were in fact part of the effort of the Shah to modernize his country and improve the quality of life of its citizens, issues which he considered a personal crusade as well as a guaranteed way to ingratiate himself to both his subjects and the international community.

The 1960's and ‘70's in Iran saw a dramatic influx of money as a result of the nation's wealth of oil reserves.  It also saw the grandiose plans of the Shah's White Revolution, a plan to modernize the country through land reform, large-scale urban development, and extension of civil liberties to women and other previously disenfranchised groups.  Portions of this program, which included the replacement of the traditional calendar dating from the Hegira with one that focused on the reign of Cyrus, wer in blatant disregard of the majority Shiite population by its secular leader.  On a more commercial level, it aggrieved most of the people the Shah hoped to help: the youth, middle class merchants, and political activists.  (Shawcross, 195)  In general, nearly every section of society was of the opinion that the White Revolution was merely a pretext for increasing the role of the central government in their daily operations.  With all of these groups against him, he essentially lost the support of the illiterate peasantry in the country and the educated elite in the city at once.  Their leadership, religious clerics and wealthy businessmen, would prove strange but effective bedfellows in the movement to depose the Shah.  (Zonis, 592)

The general consensus is that the Shah simply tried to progress too quickly in a region that observes change on a millennial scale.  Land prices skyrocketed as the government bought up land for development, driving businessmen and tenets alike out of their homes and often leaving them bankrupt.  Workers were imported into the city to build magnificent homes and skyscrapers, meanwhile spending their nights in shanty towns and sometimes even in holes in the ground.  As the British Ambassador Anthony Parsons observed, a large contributory factor in the popular uprising was the enormous influx of laborers, young and impoverished men with no roots in the community and therefore no reason to avoid confrontations.  (Shawcross, 27)  Politically, the Shah's policies were contradictory at best.  In 1967, he wrote that, "Censorship and suppression of liberty for no part of our plans…we will take no such authoritarian measures…and at no time must the means of attaining our goal be in conflict with the individual's right of belief and freedom."  (Amuzegar, 149)  However, in 1975 he abolished the state's opposition party in favor of the single Rastakhiz party, without following the legal procedure of consulting the parliament; nor did he reach out to any of his advisors in making this decision.  (Alam, 415)  The Shah expected people to be exuberant over free elections and universal suffrage, but instead they viewed his actions as another way to advance the interests of his relatives and courtiers above those of the people, as he had by driving up the value of land.

 Despite all of the attention paid to internal security and policies by the Shah, many argue that it was still inadequate when compared to his focus on foreign military and diplomatic affairs.  His personal political insecurities made him constantly suspicious of intrigue from neighboring countries as well as the major powers.  In order to combat the immediate geopolitical risks, he constantly sought the most advanced weaponry manufactured in the United States.  It was an apparent obsession, and he frequently tested new presidents by attempting to renegotiate the limits on his spending, striking the most satisfactory deal with Richard Nixon for billions of dollars in return for the newest airplanes and tracking systems.  However, this directly violated warnings dating back to 1961, when John W. Bowling of the US State Department noted that the Shah needed to abandon this "near-obsession" with military development in order to effectively manage increasing internal pressure.  (Zonis, 587)  Nine years later, the U.S. Bureau of Intelligence and Research concluded that, "Iran could not afford extensive new arms purchases and still maintain the level of economic development that the Shah deems necessary for political stability…Increased military spending could thus lessen rather than enhance Iranian security."  (Shawcross, 158)  By the time President Carter opted to act on these and similar precautionary documents, the situation had deteriorated sufficiently that they could no longer prove adequate.

Carter was not the first foreign leader to understand the precarious nature of Iranian politics and the monarch who embodied them.  When John F. Kennedy met with Nikita Khrushchev in 1961, the Russian leader informed him of the looming danger surrounding the Shah's position.  Khrushchev identified the incompatibility of the Shah's self-image and the reality of public perception, observing that the Shah viewed himself as endowed with a divine right to leadership that would overcome any adversary.  He astutely remarked that the Shah's power rested on the military success of his father, not on divine grace, and that this was surely how his subjects viewed him.  Khrushchev explained to Kennedy that he found it inevitable that Iran would undergo major upheaval, resulting in its conversion into a part of the soviet sphere.  President Kennedy was humbled by these observations, and immediately ordered an intelligence estimate to verify them.  The report concluded that, "profound political and social change in one form or another is virtually inevitable," and that such change was most likely to come through a revolutionary movement.  (Shawcross, 85)  As a result of these revelations, Kennedy acted quickly to reform the policy on Iran, enacting proactive measures to diagnose potential threats and intervene where necessary.

Given the clarity an insight of understanding nearly two decades before the revolution actually succeeded, how is it that history views the event as sudden and unpredictable?  Sources concede that intelligence circles throughout the democratic and communist worlds still found the idea of a successful revolution inconceivable in 1978.  In fact, only two reports, one Israeli and one French, mentioned the serious danger ahead for the Shah, and these went virtually unnoticed.  (Amuzegar, 12)  The general belief of diplomats in Tehran in 1978 was that the Shah would not need their countries' support, that internal security would handle the unrest.  The majority believed that the Shah still held the loyalty of the influential middle class, that they were merely adjusting to the details of the "liberalization" policy and would gradually accept it with proper encouragement from the central government.  The most glaring mistake was the accepted opinion that the revolutionary forces, particularly the religious factions, were poorly organized and largely ineffective.  (ibid., 229) 

Had intelligence in the region been more thorough, diplomats would have recognized rapidly that reality was the exact opposite of their assumptions.  Networks of bazaar businessmen and local clerics provided the ideological and financial wealth sufficient to make a truly organized, efficient revolution.  As Israeli Ambassador Uri Lubran recalled, "the only organized infrastructure which had leeway to operate within the country was the religious community."  (Shawcross, 276)  This dilemma was exacerbated by the Shah, who had already strengthened the religious movement by proscribing a nearly all other political outlets, when he chose to give approval for France to accept the exiled Ayatollah Khomeini.  In his new, Western base, the Ayatollah had access to the most modern amenities, allowing him to phone his speeches directly to his supports in Iran, who would record and immediately distribute them throughout the country.  France also gave him an increased level of credibility, as if he were a foreign dignitary rather than an exiled priest.  In October of 1978, the perception became solidified as leaders of the secular opposition movements like Mahdi Bazargan visited the Ayatollah in France to officially endorse him as the head of the national anti-Shah movement.  This act allayed the fears of the middle-class bazaar merchants that a government without the Shah would be moderate and would not result in chaos.  (Stempel, 50)  The middle class, depended upon for support by foreign diplomats as well as the Shah, had now committed themselves to a revolution under Khomeini. 

Part of the failure to understand the immediacy of the revolution, at least in the case of the Americans, was symptomatic of diplomatic communities throughout the world: they were isolated from the population they needed to observe.  The American Embassy in Tehran is a perfect example of this systematic communication failure.  Purchased in 1928 from a wealthy family who used it as a country home, the building began as an ideal compound suitable for dignitaries and resting just beyond the city limits.  However, as the population boomed and the city expanded, the urban area spread to surround the walls of the lavish complex.  The effect was that American diplomats were removed completely from a population only a few feet away from them, who largely resented the luxury of their lifestyle.  Additionally, the Shah was strict concerning whom representatives of friendly nations could meet.  In order to maintain a favorable relationship with the Shah, most of the American officials living in Iran obeyed his order and did not pursue meetings with non-diplomatic or anti-Shah elements.  (Shawcross, 263)  With these crippling limitations, it becomes more apparent why U.S. intelligence on Iran in the months leading to the overthrow of the Shah contained so many oversights and false assumptions.

However, the problem with American intelligence on Iran in the mid and late 1970's depended on more than physical isolation; it resulted from an ideological separation as well.  The American approach to what Adda Bozeman refers to as "strategic thinking" is ahistorical, valuing an estimate of current situations and relies very minimally on understanding the cultural and geopolitical traditions in a given region.  The drawback of this attitude is that its outcomes are equally fleeting as its assessments.  As seen in Iran, it leads to immediate rather than lasting allies.  Additionally, it often fails to allow for constructive advice in times of upheaval, since it cannot anticipate trends or underlying motivations.  (Bozeman, 402)  American understanding of international events also assumes certain universalities that simply do not exist.  It views religion as secondary in government and Westernizing/modernizing actions as inherently favorable.  As discussed at the beginning of this argument, neither of these beliefs translates into Iranian culture.

Perhaps if Western intelligence possessed a better understanding of the full extent of Iranian/Persian history and its impact on the modern mentality, they could have foreseen and even prevented the expulsion of the Shah in favor of an Islamist regime.  Certainly, the event brought about a shift in Middle East policies, finally alerting the West to the fact that one must consider religious issues alongside political and economic factors when assessing the Islamic world.  This, in turn, leads to a reevaluation of the emphasis placed on human rights in countries obedient to the Sharia.  As Bozeman explained in late 1979, "it is not only illusional but counterproductive to make "human rights" the focus of our foreign policy [in the Middle East.]"  (Bozeman, 391)  The inability of U.S. policy makers to grasp this essential incongruity meant that, even granted access to individuals outside of the Shah's court, it is unlikely that they could have recognized the scope of revolutionary activities and their repercussions.

Still, it is important to remember that we now view the Iranian revolution as a fait accompli, and this makes it easy to analyze the failure of those involved.  As Henry Kissinger points out, he could remember an interview where he posited that, "a rate of economic advance like Iran's was bound to lead to revolution.  But it was an idle musing, for I added immediately that apparently the momentum of a very rapid rate of growth could overcome the political perils of industrialization.  I was wrong."  (Shawcross, 275)  History may very well look back on the events of 1979 and see them more as a startling combination of erroneous actions, rather than the successes of revolutionary methods.  Had the Shah been more connected with his people's demands, had the foreign powers chosen to intervene or provide encouragement, had the various factions chosen infighting over unity, Iran might have remained a constitutional monarchy.  That, however, is exactly why it is the duty of diplomats and intelligence officers to appreciate as much as possible about the situation in a given country, so that it does not become the responsibility of the historian to analyze what might have happened.

Bibliography:

  1. Alam, Asadollah. The Shah and I: The Confidential Diary of Iran's Royal Court, 1969-1977. C. New York: St. Martin's Press. 1991
  2. Amuzegar, Jahangir. The Dynamics of Revolution. C. Albany: State University of New York. 1991
  3. Bozeman, Adda. "Iran: U.S. Foreign Policy and the Tradition of Persian Statecraft." Orbis, pp 387-402. Summer 1979
  4. Shawcross, William. The Shah's Last Ride. C. New York: Simon and Schuster. 1988
  5. Stempel, John D. Inside the Iranian Revolution. C. Bloomington: Indiana University Press. 1981
  6. Zonis, Marvin. "Iran: A Theory of Revolution from Accounts of the Revolution." World Politics vol. 35, no. 4, pp 586-606. July, 1983

Article Source: http://www.articlesbase.com/news-and-society-articles/causes-and-perceptions-of-the-1979-iranian-revolution-4270666.html

About the Author

Alana Blumenthal is an historian with a B.A. from Sarah Lawrence College.

2/1/14

Protests continue in Ukraine - Rivalry between Russia and the EU

         Protests in Ukraine continue since November. The country seems tightened between two powers; European Union and Russia. Last declarations from Europe, Herman Van Rompuy was in favor of the protesters, Van Rompuy specified that the  future of Ukraine is with European Union whereas Russia side Sergei Lavrov criticised protesters and surprised with European Union defending the vandals.

         Ukraine has already been an important issue between the two powers.  Both side consider the region as the gate of their security including Romania and Bulgaria. The latter have been gathered by the EU and Ukraine is now last fortificcation for Russia.


         Russia’s  historical imperial interest still continue on Ukraine. The country is divided nto two segments: Russia supporters and the ones aiming to enter to the EU. 

1/24/14

The Great Powers in Middle East

The myth of the Great Powers

Author: Shokrollah Kamari Majin
The myth of the Great Powers
One of the most interesting theories in the political world is Conspiracy Theory. The theory explains claims related to events, which sees hidden hands behind the events.

            Why is it interesting and in situations popular? This may be because it is somehow connected with invisible imprecise and ambiguous factors, so that the truth or falsity of the claim is not just around the corner. The relationship between the claim for hidden actors involved in an event and the reality is not easy to establish, but it used to be something that floats free in the air. Perhaps that is why it is most interesting, especially among mass people.
            Question on whether a perception or a claim, which is based on rumours and is prevalent in society, is realistic or based on mere illusions, can play a decisive role in the society's political and consequently social issues.
This article aims to shed light on at least one of the angles of processes that result in to produce conspiracy theories in the Middle Eastern countries.
It is clear that the more a society is chaotic and unstable, the more illusions, unrealistic assessments, rumours, constructed narratives and speculations have the ability to grow.
One of the special characteristics of the Middle East region is that the political behaviour in situations can be as harsh and inflexible as no political thinking can feel safe. In an article in the Turkish Weekly, Eyüp Ersoy from the department of International Relations, Bilkent University, gives a verbal definition of the Middle East, where he mentions that the Middle East is a region "Where no one is without a rival, and where there are those who cannot be without a rival" (JTW, December 27, 2012). With such a presentation of the region's political relations one can better imagine, how complicated and unstable political condition may be in the region.
In another article in the "Journal of Conflict Resolution" Sørli et al. ask question about why the Middle East is "one of the most conflict-prone regions" (JCR, Vol. 49 No. 1, February 2005 141-165).  While Sørli and his co-authors compare the Middle East to other regions, they find the region to be a special region "by authoritarian regimes, oil-dependent economies, Islam, and the protracted Israeli-Palestinian conflict" (Ibid). If these above national and regional factors are added with international factors, one can get a broader understanding of the political situation in this part of the world.
That is one of the reasons for the growth of theories among the people of the Middle East, on which basis there are always mysterious forces behind the scene of politics, who are directing the roles. Dr Matthew Gray, a senior lecturer at the Australian National University's Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies believes that the Middle East is a suitable land to grow conspiracy theories about the involvement of the West in the region (Gray, 2010).
As late as possible in the case of Boston bombing in few weeks ago, producers of conspiracy theories once again became active in order to find the person responsible for the bombings. Although the disaster happened far away from the Middle East, but the theory machine in Middle Eastern countries was launched, so that a columnist wrote in the Daily News Egypt, 21 April 2013, "in Egypt, and the Middle East at large, we love our conspiracy theories like we love our sugary tea and our suicide bombers (boom!)".
Many political events such as repression of popular uprisings, regime change, support of dictators, overthrow a government or developments of such in the Middle Eastern countries are often related to major powers, major economic cartels, freemasonry groups, strong Christian or Jewish organisations, and so on. The popular explanation is that those groups do those things in the direction of their interests and therefore they're trying to have influence on the political relationship in the region.
As we can see the roles of those hidden hands in all cases are negative. Ramsay makes it clear that "the problem with the term conspiracy theory is that it comes with a lot of negative baggage" Ramsay, 2006: 10).
Conspiracy theory tells of a form of perception related to causes of events. Those can be economic, political, social or else. The theory is used to explain situations, where a range of selected but not necessarily relevant arguments trying to prove the existence of some - often unclear - plans by any individuals or groups, who aiming some targets behind the event (Ramsay, 2006). Those individuals or groups are not always known.  Daniel Pipes defines it as a theory based on any notions of that behind a given event there lies a complicated plot, set in motion from "powerful hidden forces" (Pipes, 1992: 41-56).
When there happens an important event that can be related to politics or when a political controversial issue is launched, some individuals or groups begin to look for a directly track from powerful forces, which is difficult to say who really they are.
Those individuals or groups will often find someone who can be identified as the culprit. However this "someone" as mentioned, is in a package of some sort of mystery.
Of course it's not up for discussion that in many cases interference from great powers can be discovered. It is clear that the great powers have influences in many different parts of the world. However, this is not a general law that can be confident and sufficient reason in every situation. Perhaps in many cases such a law is even misleading and is thinking with negative results.
In the most pessimistic situation there can be said that there are always some Western plots in connection with every political event in the Middle East. However, it looks completely unthinkable to claim that in planning and creating of the political opportunities, it is always the Westerners that have the main role. It is also difficult to imagine that the Westerners plan and act directly and without some intermediaries.
It can in the worst situation result in a perception that nobody has role in the social changes, but that it is always the will of the hidden hands that determine everything.
In the book "Conspiracy Theories in the Arab World" (2010) Dr Matthew Gray points to different involved factors in the forming of a conspiracy theory in the Arab world (Gray, 2010).
In an interview with The Sydney Morning Herald Gray says that "All sorts of people, from presidents and public figures all the way down to taxi drivers use conspiracy theories as political language". (The Sydney Morning Herald June 17, 2011).
The art "to seize opportunities" in a political game is something else than "conspiracy". Opportunism is a much familiar way in political operations. According to the definition from "The Free Dictionary" the concept means "the conscious policy and practice of taking selfish advantage of circumstances, with little regard for principles". That is one of the usual features in politics that a state conducts a targeted assessment of a concrete situation in the light of existing realities, and attempts for the maximum use of the "situation".
On the basis of Realist Theory, which is a dominated theory in the field of International Relations the security of states is one of the fundamental values (Morgenthau, 1960). From a "realist" perspective "states" have to make efforts for their safety. There are no principles or moral injunction / prohibition that would prevent the world's states from acting in an unethical or immoral way.
"National interest" in a "realist" sense derives from that rule that a state has to be strong to promote its future plans and ambitions. "National interest" may contain all kinds - economic, military, and cultural of a nation's capabilities and competencies.
One of the most prominent researchers in the field of realist thinking in IR in the 20th century is Hans Morgenthau, who stressed the importance of "national interest" and its role in the relations between nations.
According to Morgenthau foreign policy goals should be defined on the basis of national interest, and "national interest" should be defined in terms of "power" (Morgenthau, 1978: 5). That is why "National interest" and "power" are two key concepts for Morgenthau.
Essentially, because of the specific social and cultural structure of the Middle East, the religion of Islam has a great influence on decision-making processes in various arenas of society. This results in a significant power to Islamic leaders in the Middle Eastern countries. It is actually that group of actors, who are focused on here. It is based on including the perception that religious organizations have the best facilities in constant contact with people.
Therefore, the acceptability of the society's dominant order and the legitimacy of the ruling powers in the Middle Eastern countries are in a high degree dependent on those Islamic forces and establishments.
More than other institutions the Islamic establishments are able to manoeuvre in order to show the ruling powers their strength and stabilization of theirs power.
Even every state in order to advance its political targets uses the conspiracy theory. The state in situations can come to need to identify its allies and enemies in order to maintenance of its security and to preserve its military, political and economic resources. However, every state, which possesses the coercive and economic means, has also need a third arm, whose task is creating a form of legitimacy for the state.
In the Middle Eastern countries the induction of the impression of, which foreign states and which internal circles are in the direction of the country's national interest or act contrary to the interests, is also among the abilities that the religious circles can handle.
Due to the link between Islamic communities and organisations on the one hand and the people's beliefs on the other hand, those organisations possesses of the best chances to constructing one or more enemies for to tell people that behind each problem there lies a hidden conspiracy.
The religious scholars, who particularly have special religious authorizations (fatwa), have the ability, directly or indirectly, to induce people to believe that behind occurrence of a given set of political events, some hidden hands are at work.
However cooperation between the ruling power and religious leaders (ulama) and pastors all is depend on whether those two forms of power live in a harmonious structure or that there are cracks in their relationship.
If we assume a specific case and we review it, we may be able to get a better understanding of the background to the growth of the conspiracy theory in the Middle East.
I will focus on Iran, and on a stakeholder circle as one of the main groups among all groups, who are interested in the dissemination of rumours and perceptions based on Conspiracy Theory.
Although many have examined the role of Islamic establishments and Islamic clerics in the Middle East I mean the religious circles and their interests are the most decisive factor in the political relations in the Middle East region, as it is worth to again look at. But the question is why they try to spread conspiracy theories among the people. Why they claim that there are always one or another prepared plot by great powers behind every political event.
To answer the question the motive of this interest group can be analysed. I will focus on the Mossadegh government's fall in Iran in 1953 as one of the most controversial events in the Middle East that is happened in 60 years ago, but there are still many unanswered questions around it.
The case that can confirm the influence of conspiracy theory in the Middle East contains many different narratives about the events around the time of the nationalization of oil in Iran – the so called movement of the nationalization of oil – under Dr. Mosaddegh Premiership. Many political analysts after almost 60 years from those events still are disagree about the question of a direct or indirect involvement of the United States in 1953 coup against Mosaddegh's government in Iran.
There are several sources, among them Malcolm Byrnes, who can confirm the alleged coup, but there are also allegations, which reject that there may be a previously planned attempt to overthrow the government. Byrne says that the order from the "Secretary of State John Foster Dulles" to the CIA in order to overthrow of Mosaddeq government was issued already in March 1953 (Byrnes, 2000).
Among opponents of the theory of the coup against Mosaddeq the famous Iranian historian Ali Mirfetros can be mentioned. In his book entitled "Mohammad Mosaddeq, pathology of a failure" he claims that there has not been a coup, but that the basis for the allegation related to a coup refers to a nervous and angry history, and perhaps we have sacrificed the present and future for this destructive nervousness (Mirfetros, 2008: 20).
The intention here is either a confirmation or refutation of that there has been a coup against Mosaddeq, but the purpose is to show the influence of "Conspiracy Theory" in Middle Eastern countries, especially around major political events.
Among opponents of the theory of coup, there exists this attitude that all the conditions and factors within Iran at that historical time were gathered in direction of overthrow the Mosaddeq's government. Thus it would sooner or later lead to the government's fall. The role that the West played in that game was only a riding on the wave of events and using the circumstance, which was already existed in the framework of the internal developments in Iran.
What is a primary importance in the study of political developments in a given country is to identify the change's backgrounds and the related factors. The deeper and more accurate this recognition is, the less speculations, rumours, exaggerations and fabulous creations. Of course it is not without difficulties to be aware on and having control over the developments' processes. Therefore, in some situations, the easier way will be selected. Its price is also to falling into a trap of unfounded and false theories. Mirfetros who criticizes this trend, says:
We are a people who want big victories and successes, and yet readily obtainable. Where we suffer from our failures, we resort to the "conspiracy theory", "British plot" and "external factors" instead of looking at ourselves and to be aware of the shortcomings and own negligence (Mirfetros, 2008: 23).
That is exactly in accordance with the definition of "conspiracy theory", which Ramsay presents. He says, "Conspiracy theory" is developed based on a particular narrative form where you select a variety of arguments to prove the existence of a plot (Ramsay, 2006).
Mirfetros binds populism, "mass society" and charismatic leadership to "Conspiracy Theory". According to Mirfetros a populist movement may be an appropriate platform for the development of the view that "the external plot" is behind almost everything what is happening in the society. Those, who are pursuing a certain purpose using of conspiracy theory, they argues "that everything is the fault of, or everything is controlled by X" (Ramsay, 2006: 11).
Mirfetros believes that populist leaders develop in conditions, where the society lacks development and that they are strengthened in a pattern of cultural stagnation and political - social emptiness. Finally they present themselves as "the leader" and "father of the nation" through a combination of escalating emotions, slogans, excitements, nervousness, populism and ambitions.
He continues, "the leader" because of his nervous and anarchic nature cannot come up with concrete solutions to concrete political - social problems, so he by using the focus on the "plot" and "the stranger's plan" tries to hide his weaknesses and barriers, in other words, a populist leader is both "chaos producer" and one who "lives of chaos" (Mirfestro, 2008: 71).
Often, for two reasons one can come to a conspiracy theory. The first is that those in power need for constructing false enemies. The other is when the realities are covered for the people's vision, so that they inevitably resort to claims, which according to Birchall are ridiculous, misconceived, paranoid, unfounded, outlandish or irrational (Birchall, 2006).
In the Mossadegh case there are many evidences, which tell about the Westerners' (Americans and British) interferences. President Obama even in a speech in 2009 in Cairo acknowledged the involvement, when he said "In the middle of the Cold War, the United States played a role in the overthrow of a democratically-elected Iranian government" (Guardian, 4 June 2009). However the claim that the only cause to overthrow the Mossadegh government has been the American-British will and plotting in order to prove of another claim (everything is the fault of, or everything is controlled by Americans or British) is indemonstrable.
The religious circles were Mossadegh's greatest opponents. At that time there were mainly three groupings, who were involved in the events related to the nationalization of the oil; those were the nationalists lead by Mossadegh, the religious part, who led by Shiia clerics, mainly by Ayatollah Kashani, and the last the communists, who led by Tudeh Party.
Among those the religious groups were strong due to their links to people's faith and moreover due to a great financial support from the market (Bazar).
According to the Iranian historian, Gholamreza Nejati, in the middle of the struggle for the nationalization of oil industry and in the process of the confrontation with Dr. Mohammad Mossadegh in March 1953 Ayatollah Kashani by his considerable influence among religious communities and the market (Bazar) took side of the Shah, and prevented him from travelling outside the country. Ayatollah Boroujerdi also congratulated the return of the Shah to Iran (Nejati, 1992: 225).
There are many evidences, which prove the religious circles' fear and dissatisfaction of and even enmity against Mossadegh. A time before Mossadegh's fall Ayatollah Kashani had told to another ayatollah (Behbahani) that Mossadegh's "leftist advisers were endangering national security" (Abrahamian, 1982: 276-7), because "the religious establishment, worried about communism" (Gheissari & Nasr, 2006: 53).
However the point is that the religious circles and religious leaders try to relate Mossadegh's fall only to a detailed plan by Americans-British.
Accusations against the U.S. related to "1953 coup" culminated especially after the occupation of the American embassy in Tehran in November 1979. This was in order to legitimize the occupation. Here the Conspiracy Theory machine starts again.  Mousavi Khoiniha in an interview with the Magasine "Tarikhirani" says "Americans came here and toppled the national government. Instead we also occupied theirs embassy.... Some say that it is contrary to international norms. Was American coup in Iran in accordance with international laws?" (tarikhirani.ir, November 28, 2012).
That was not an unknown phenomenon in the Iranian history. Every time there was need to an enemy, it was produced. It's interesting that Ramsay says generally that this unknown enemy has been existed in various forms in the 300 years, "the Jews (or Jewish bankers), the Masons, the Catholics, the Communists, the Illuminati, or the Devil" (Ramsay, 2006: 11).
Indeed Iranian religious leaders used "the embassy hostage" in order to consolidate their power and the elimination of political rivals. But before that, they should have some reasons for their act. One of the main presented reasons was that according to Houghton they were not ensured regarding the security and survival of the revolution (Houghton, 2001), and thus the hostage-taking was justified to prevent a repeat of 1953 Coup. One of the hostage-takers had told that they thought "the countdown for another coup d'état had begun"! (Kinzer, 2008: 203).
After Mossadegh's fall in 1953 Ayatollah Kashani in an interview with newspaper "Almahdi" expresses his enmity against Mossadegh. When the interviewer asks him: Do you think that Dr. Mossadegh tried to establish of a republic regime? Ayatollah Kashani answers: Yes, he tried to establish republic. Four month earlier Mossadegh wanted to send the Shah out of the country, but I wrote a letter to the Shah and demanded that he should cancel his trip, and the Shah also temporarily withdrew from thinking of travelling....
The reporter then asks Ayatollah Kashani about Mossadegh's punishment, and Ayatollah answers:
According to Islamic Shariah, the punishment of someone who betrays in his country's commands and representation in Jihad is death (Dehnavi, 1982).
The Iranian historian Dr. Reza Niazmand says also it is well known that in the August 1953 event Ayatollah Kashani was active in the bring people together from the impoverished region in Tehran in order to uprise against Mossadegh (Niazmand, ..... : 439).
In the anniversary of the 1953 coup in Iran Ray Takeyh wrote an article in Washington Post, where he considered the clergy device as the most responsible for overthrow of Mossadegh government. He believes that "the Islamic Republic should not be able to whitewash the clerics' culpability" (Washington Post, 18 August 2010). After he gives a short review of the then historical events he expresses that the clergy has always been opposed to modern and secular politicians like Mosssadegh (Ibid). While Takeyh does not deny America's role in the overthrow of Mossadegh government he believes that "responsibility for the suffocation of the Iranian peoples' democratic aspirations in the summer of 1953 lies primarily with those who went on to squash another democratic movement in the summer of 2009 - the mullahs" (Ibid).
However the stately Fars News Agency - in the attempt to legitimize the Islamic regime's inflexible attitude in its relations to the United States uses the conspiracy theory again and claims that distrust is one of the main characteristics in the relationship between Iran and the United States. Fars News Agency points to America's 1953 coup against Mossadegh as the cause of this distrust (Fars News Agency, 24 December 2012).
Finally Ahmadinejad's claim can be considered as one link in a chain of the theory, on whose basis "everything is the fault of, or everything is controlled by, X" (Ramsay, 2006: 11). In the anniversary of the 9/11 event Ahmadinejad said: "The September 11 [attacks] were actually a planned game to provoke the human community's sentiments and find an excuse for launching attack on Muslim regions and occupying Iraq and Afghanistan, which led to the massacre of one million innocent people" (ABC News, September 11, 2012).
Bibliography:
  • ABC News, September 11, 2012: Ahmadinejads speech on 10-Year Anniversary of 9/11 event.
  • Abrahamian, Ervand, 1982. Iran Between Two Revolutions, Princeton University Press, 1982
  • Birchall, Clare, 2006. Knowledge Goes Pop: From Conspiracy Theory to Gossip. Oxford: Berg.
  • Dehnavi, Mohammad. 1982. A Series of Writings, Speeches and Messages of Ayatollah Kashani gathered by Mohammad Dehnavi, Publications "Chap Pakhsh", 1982.
  • Gheissari, Ali & Nasr Sayyed Vali Reza, 2006. Democracy in Iran: history and the quest for liberty, Oxford University Press, 2006
  • Gray, M 2010, Conspiracy Theories in the Arab World: Sources and Politics, Routledge, London UK.
  • Kinzer, Stephen,2008. All the Shah's Men: an American Coup and the Roots of Middle EastTerror, 2nd ed. (Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2008), 203.
  • Houghton, David, U.S. Foreign Policy and the Iran Hostage Crisis, (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001).
  • Malcolm, Byrne, ed. 2 (November 2000), The Secret CIA History of the Coup, 1953, George Washington University, quoting National security Archive Electronic Briefing Book No. 28.
  • Mirfetros, Ali, 2008, Mohammad Mosaddeq, Pathology of a Failure, Farhang, Montréal.
  • Nejati, Gholamreza, 1992. Twenty-five-year Political History of Iran, Institute for Cultural Service "Resa", 1992.
  • Niazman, Reza, 2004. Shia in the Iranian History, Hekayat-e Qalam-e Novin Publishing
  • Pipes, Daniel, 1992. Dealing with Middle Eastern Conspiracy Theories. Orbis 36: 41–56.
  • Ramsay, Robin, 2006. Conspiracy Theories. Pocket Essentials.
  • The Guardian (UK). 4 June 2009.
  • The Sydney Morning Herald, June 17, 2011
  • Washington Post, 18 August 2010
Article Source: http://www.articlesbase.com/politics-articles/the-myth-of-the-great-powers-6588868.html
About the Author
With a background as Cand.scient.soc. from Aalborg University, Denmark, Shokrollah Kamari Majin works currently as a social worker in Helsingor, Denmark. In addition, he trained Middle East Studies at the Master's degree at the University of Odense, Denmark. He is interested in studies dealing with the relationship between power and religion with special focus on the Middle East as the regional interest area. Additionally, he works with IR theories. Currently, he is Ph.D. student at the Institute of International Relations, Warsaw University, Poland.

Relationship Between Iran and the U.S

Relationship between Iran and the U.S

Author: Shokrollah Kamari Majin

Relationship between Iran and the U.S

The relationship between Iran and the U.S. is one of the most controversial inter-state relationships in the today's international politics.

It is interesting to know how it can be that two countries with a close relationship in many areas today looking at each other as implacable enemies.

The two countries were as close to each other as "... it's hard to figure out why the U.S. and Iran would necessarily be in conflict" (Pollack, 2005).

Whether that more than three decades conflict between the two states can be explained by the International Relations theories, is difficult to say something about. However, in the first part of this paper I have tried to focus on the Iran-U.S. relationship by using Realist concepts like "security" and "national interest".

Thus, my theoretical framework in this paper is Realism as the starting point. However, I begin to see at the Iran – U.S. conflict first outside of that framework, i.e. with a consideration of other aspects than a direct reference to the fundamental concepts, which Realist Theory is built on. Those aspects fall rather within the cultural, national and historical formations and narratives and thus one part of the political identities. This is because in addition to a presence of a "natural" conflict between two countries in the case of Iran – U.S. conflict there are also many psychological-political factors, mutual hostility features related to national honour and pride, ideological interferences, hatred, historical conflicts and internal power struggles that are involved in that hostile relationship.

I have used Ray Takeyh, 2009, "Guardians of the Revolution" as the main resource, which can be seen that it directly or indirectly reflected in almost all of the text.

For the purpose of a overview of the discussion I have seen to the problem from a dividing of states' way of thinking in two categories; the traditional and the modern.

After a brief review of the two countries' way of thinking in their relationship with each other on the basis of relatively traditional and the modern way I will try to see in which extent the two states behaviours in the past thirty five years have been in accordance with the above mentioned realistic concepts.  

The controversial relationship between Iran and U.S. has taken so many hostile events to self, and thus so many narratives have shaped among both people and the elite groups. Especially in Iran it has led to a kind of hatred and fear of "The Great Satan", so that a talk about a normalizing relationship looks to be a taboo in that country.

One can say that in the hostile relationship between Iran and U.S. there are two different ways of ethical thinking that confront with each other; on the one hand a traditional way of thinking, while on the other hand, there is a thinking, which is influenced by the interconnections of the modern world and its evolution.

This categorization does not imply a breakdown of the Iranian and the American societies on the basis of a traditionally-modern dichotomy. This is something which falls within a sociological study, which is not my area.

With this categorization, I will only explain the dominant fundamental thinking of, respectively, the Iranian state system and the U.S. governments, which in the long controversial relationship are reflected in their behaviour towards each other.

Of course one cannot put a sharp separation between the world communities through the above-mentioned division.

However, I have identified at least three important differences between a traditional thinking and a modern thinking which in different degrees may be reflected in the political behaviour of each individual state:

a)      People's political opinions in many cases are not independent, but those can be functions of the elite's positions.

Unlike the modern societies where access to knowledge is more open (Olshin, 2007), people in traditional communities have limited access to knowledge, therefore their opinions are highly dependent on society's political or spiritual respectful personalities.

Thus, when there is talking about a collective hatred including hatred of another race, ethnicity, religion or political believe than the own self, the political elites' way of thinking can work decisive to the appearance of the collective hatred, its form and its degree of resentment. These factors after several generations can be mixed with other entities of a culture.

b)      The traditional method of judging. A judgment is often made simpler and is taken place from a single angle orientation.

This way of judging behaviour or an action on, does not make a limitation of the behaviour or the act itself and thus a punishment for the guilty person or group appropriate to the degree of violation or unfavourable to others. So it should be no surprise that two similar offenses led to two dissimilar penalties in a more traditional society all depending on who is committing.

Therefore, a state with more traditional political culture reacts to the behaviour of other states with a special attention to the positions, which that state has already outlined for each of those states.

Against this background for a state, which is inspired of traditional political culture a political adaptability and flexibility in relation to other states is not easy.  

This approach is contrary to the judgment in a modern society, where in analysis of a given behaviour there is more tendency to a limitation of the behaviour self, and to avoid a generalization.

            One can generally say that the traditional way of thinking often involved with value-laden entities, therefore there are other strong criteria than "security", "national interest" or more realistic objectives in the analysis of an event or behaviour. This is why in a traditional way of thinking "the principles and values that guide spiritual and ceremonial life are the same principles and values that guide political life" (Knick, 2010, Huff Post).

Whereas, the modern thinking focuses more on worldly values ​​and thus may hold more adaptability and flexibility in the relationship with the others.  

c)      In a society with tendency to the traditional political thinking both elites and people believe rather in a kind of authoritarianism than to be statutory and legal faith and law-oriented. The judgment tendencies among the public and even among many elites are traditional or charismatic rather than to be legal.  

Just after the 1979 revolution many of Shah's men and supporters escaped to the West, the majority to the United States. In light of the then national and international agreements on political refugees that more or less in many Western countries were applicable, these countries received Shah's men and followers, who now were political refugees. From the youth Muslim revolutionaries' hand, it was perceived as more hostile move by the western world against the newborn revolution. Especially since the Shah was allowed to travel to the U.S. for his further treatment in a hospital in the United States, this permit was used as an argument that the U.S. still insisted on the elimination of the revolution and "Islam" (Takeyh, 2009: 38).

One can well imagine that if two states - like two people - lack a sufficient common denominator to communicate with each other, the relationship will stall.

Another symbolic criterion which is used in an analysing and thus "assessment" in the political relations in the traditional world is the question of "who" one meets with. There is always the question of which person or group "we" are allowed to meet with, and the question of that person or group is in a neutral position in relation to "us" or is someone "we" do not have a friendly relationship with.

Against this background, a political leader - in the traditional sense - will be judged for his meetings with other political leaders. But in the modern sense it may well happen that a political leader or a diplomat for example, during a conference meet with another leader or diplomat from a non-friendly country, without it necessarily being construed as an allied relationship, or trend to the improvement of the relationship or an cooperation. A single meeting of this kind cannot even be interpreted as an attempt for normalization of relations between two states.

In the aftermath of the 1979 revolution in Iran, radical Islamists used several situations, each time a celebrity person has met with foreign persons. Radical Islamists' reactions have been with the intention that they would defeat their internal rivals. It is especially happened every time rival individuals or groups have attempted a meeting with the Americans (ibid, 38) or they have talked about informal dialogue with the U.S.

Barzargan's (provisional premium minister after the revolution) meeting with the Americans during a conference in Algeria in 1979 is an example for these kinds of meetings. His purpose of the meeting was merely a hope for "to reformulate them on basis of respect and equality" (ibid, 36), but the radicals criticized Bazargan and stressed the "hatred" against and rejection of "the enemy".

Such a political position makes diplomatic relations, which are necessary to take steps towards a normalized relationship, impossible or difficult. If you are not face to face to sit and talk with someone who you have problematic relationship with, how can you solve your problems with that?

These kinds of taboos can always be used as middles to eliminating of the internal rival group. On that basis the taboos become harder, because eventually no one dares to approach the red lines.

I think that the "embassy occupation" also occurred in this internal clash embossed direction; just in one direction, where rival groups tried to find resources that could be used against other groups. I am therefore not fully agreeing with Ray Takeyh, where he believes that radical Islamists feared that the U.S. embassy would be a base for counterrevolutionary activities, just a role the embassy had played during the coup against Mosaddegh and his government in 1953 (ibid, 38). The so-called "Oil Movement" in 1953 and the Shah's upheaval in 1979 were, after all, two completely different situations. The two political situations of many reasons are not at all comparable with each other. Therefore, the theory of the Islamists' fear that the U.S. would break the revolution and help with the return of the Shah to power, as happened in 1953, is unfounded.

In the above I have referred to some of the important points of the Iranians behaviour in their relationship with U.S. If we look at the U.S. way of handling in that relationship, we can also not see a big step to end the cold war-like conflict between Iran and the U.S. It has nothing to do with the modern thinking, but it returns to the question of to what extent there has been a will to melt the icing in that relationship, and the question of to what extent there have been possibilities to clear barriers out of the way of a relationship between the two countries.

Now we can look at both countries' behaviours in relation to each other with "realist" glasses.

Two central concepts in the Realist theory are "security" and "national interest". These to concepts have a central role in the understanding of the Realist theory in Internal Relations.

The source and background of the theory in its connection with the human nature – of course from the Classical Realist view of point – can let be to the area of political philosophy, and of realistic discussions, which are very general. What come out of these discussions are states security issue and the issue of the national interest. It is interesting to know whether that thirty five years tens relationship between Iran and U.S has been in the direction of the two countries' securities and national interests. It is also interesting to know whether that relationship and its continue has been in the direction of just one of them and while in the direction of losing and in conflict with the others security and national interest.

One of the points of view, where through we can look at the relationship is an assumption of a starting point in the relationship between the two countries in 1979, when the revolution took place, and from this time and onward, which is a beginning of a hostile relationship between the two states, to see which consequences this hostile relationship has had for the two countries. We take the starting point where the two countries are friend-states, have common interests, and until the revolution those two have very close cooperation.

This close relationship and broad cooperation stops there. Now during the time and by successive events in that relationship we can examine which advantages and disadvantages each of the two countries have had from those events and the process of that relationship.

  

If we examine this issue a bit deeper, we come to the question of which alternatives each of the countries have had; after stopping this friendly and cooperative relationship. Immediately we find that Iran by its cutting of the relationship with U.S never got a secure and stable alternative, which could fill the U.S. place. But contrary the U.S in the Middle East has had several alternatives. U.S. for which Iran have been a trusted friend and a stable base in the direction of its economic, political and military interests in the Middle East region. In the case of the losing of Iran, U.S. has always had many alternatives in the region. U.S. by an establishing of stronger relationships with its other friends in the Middle East region tried to fill the void cause by losing Iran.  

In the top of all those friends there is Saudi Arabia. It is obvious that the relationship and the alliance between U.S. and Saudi Arabia in those currently form is an old relationship. It is a strategic alliance, which has not begin since after 1979 revolution in Iran, but it is something that  has begun since before the World War Second.  However that is the point that U.S. after the loss of its relationship with Iran, by use of the Saudi Arabia's unused capacities could fill the void of that loss in order to ensure its own security in the first step and finally in order to ensure the economic, political and military interests in the next step. U.S. on the one hand could thus reduce the disadvantages of the loss of the cooperative relationship with Iran. On the other hand by expanding the relationship with Saudi Arabia the U.S. could continue its dominance in the Middle East.

If we return to the other side of that conflict, we can see it has not been the same for Iran. Especially that on the one hand by the insistence from the Iranian side in continuing the war against Iraq and on the other hand the unbroken help, which Americans and its Middle Eastern allies gave to Iraq against Iran, that war had the most important role in the weakness of Iran and was the cause to a broad loss and harm to the Iranian's infrastructure human, economic, political and cultural.

If the proclaims of "the war was a God gift" from the Islamic rulers' side disregarded, the war between Iran and Iraq had a major impact on the country's retrogression in all the areas including economic, political, cultural, social, ....

Of course according to the Iranian Islamic rulers the Eight year war was a gift, if we analyse the situation from that view of point that in which extent it had impact on the stabilizing and continuation of the Islamic rule, and its domination on the all affairs and aspects of the country, while on the destruction and overcoming the internal political competitors.

If we look at the relationship from a point of view of national security and national interests, we can see the war had a very destructive role. The war had no other consequences than problems and retrogression to the Iranian people.

On another point of view, from which we can look at the situation, is on the basis happening of the global changes. The most important of those events was the Soviet collapse and thus the end of the Cold War. Until that the international system was bipolar, and that many of the relations became regulated on the basis of that system and with regard to a rivalry between the two superpowers, there could always exist worries concerning Iran's strategic position especially due to that country's neighbouring with the Soviet Union. However, by the end of the Cold War that strategic position and the worries in a high degree disappeared. Before that there was a worry about what could happen in Iran and there was the question of whether Iran would tend to the Soviet Union, the question of which role Iran would play in relation to the Afghanistan occupation by Russia, and many other questions. But after the Soviet collapse all those worries lost their meanings.

Basically, if we want to explain the up and down of the relation by the realistic criteria, we can conclude that the continuation of the stressful relation did not contain so high a degree of loss and harm for the U.S as those did for Iran; regarding to both "security" and "national interest".

It is worthy to mention that according to the Realist theory there is rationality, which states apply in their assessment of their own securities and national interests. Realists believe states take decisions on the basis of rationality.

However, there appears a question; whether a state's rational in the attempt to their own survival is always in the same direction with the attempt to protection and preserving of the country's security and national interest.

By focusing on the Iranian state's behaviours and handlings generally in relation to the other states and specific in relation to the U.S., I can conclude that the states attempts for own survival on the one side and its attempts for the country's security and national interest in the most of the recent thirty-five years have been in two different directions; if we don't say in two opposite directions, we can at least say in two different directions.

Thus, there also appears a theoretical question. When we see that some state's rationality will be applied in the direction of the state survival, but not in the direction of their people's security and national interest, we can see a paradoxical point, so we cannot find a realistic explanation.

Embassy occupation

"The occupation of the U.S. Embassy" is undoubtedly the highest point in the long tense relations between the U.S. and Iran in the aftermath of 1979 revolution.

That event on one way or another has had to do with the ideological strength and capacity from the radical Muslim leaders´ side.

The cornerstone of the social and political conditions of any society is based on economic relations. If a state has no economic ideas or recipes for how the economy at the national level should work, it will be very chaotic and a difficult task to establish and maintain the political order. 

The revolutionary Muslim leaders still not had a clue of how an economic system would work. Islam - like all other religions - does not have any suggestions on how economic conditions will be. So the new rulers, who now had taken power in a great country, did not have sufficient knowledge and thus a liability or obligation sense of the country's economic interests. They were almost indifferent to the economic issues and therefore trade and economic relations with the outside world. "In Khomeini's view, the path of amassing power and ushering in a radical foreign policy necessitated a crisis that could even endanger Iran's practical and long-term interests" (ibid, 42). They could not assess the economic consequences of an unrealistic policy. They therefore could not dream of a conciliatory relationship with the U.S. and thus benefits for the country.

To adopt of such policy was without doubt not consistent with the Iranians' national interests, but if we generally analyze the Islamic rulers behaviours and have specific focus on the embassy occupation seen from a formation, stabilize and survival of a new political regime, we can agree that those behaviours were enough logical and sensible. 

Against this background, their "enmity" against the United States, was however not fleshed out, logical and well reasoned. Their areas of focus in that hostile relationship were often very superficial and populist than being reasonable and related to realities. Unlike the Communists, who specifically tried to argue for a discrepancy between "humanity" and the capitalist system with the U.S. "imperialism" in the lead, the Islamists could not speak anything more than that the United States was "the Great Satan"! Against that background, the Islamists had no choices but to maintain the hostile discourse and using the "embassy occupation" to stabilize their victory over the other rivals. Therefore, they "focused more directly on the U.S. embassy" (ibid, 38). This political style was also largely successful for them at the expense of performing an act totally inconsistent with today's world political conventions. "They had violated international law, antagonized a superpower, and created a lasting image of Iran,... " (ibid, 42). They were not at all worried about throwing the country into an "acute crises", but the important thing was "their advantage" (ibid, 42). Specifically, in the case of "embassy occupation", they used the wrong way, as many of the former occupiers of the embassy today - after almost 30 years - admit the mistake.

The hatred's fire, which was already lit for some years before the revolution, was ignited by the new rulers. "Khomeini's conduct had generated a narrative that would haunt and damage Iran for decades to come" (ibid, 46).  

The 1953 "coup", a reason for a sustained hatre?

The most important political events during the 37 years the Shah was in power, were the 1953 coup against Mosaddegh's government and 1963 uprising, which had a predominantly Islamic colouring (ibid, 41). If one carefully analyzes these two events separately, with a special focus on Islamic leaders' role in these two situations, one can get to a more realistic understanding of the leadership's background for a hostile relationship with the U.S.

During the first event which ended with a coup against Mosaddegh's government, Islamic forces did not support Mosaddegh. Of both ideological, strategic and political reasons "Islamic forces" and "Mosaddegh" were far apart. Mosaddegh was a nationalist and stood at the head of a nationalist movement. Basically, the answer to the question of "to be Iranian" or "being Muslim" has always been one of the dilemmas in the political arena, which cannot easily be overlooked.

The political mood under "nationalization of oil" movement in the early 1950s was such that three different political currents were present. These three consisted of a nationalistic, an Islamic and a Marxist trend. There was at least one common feature between Mosaddegh government's strategy and Tudeh Party (Iranian Communist Party). The common feature was the opposition to the Shah's regime, but there was no commonality between these two political roads on the one side and "Islamic forces" on the other side. Therefore, when the coup against Mosaddegh succeeded and the Shah after three days stay abroad returned to Iran, most of religious characters and organisations were not dissatisfied with the coup, so that the then greatest spiritual leader (Ayatullah Boroujerdi) congratulated the Shah. In the period between the coup in 1953 and the later uprising in 1963 Mosaddegh's followers were persecuted and the communists were greatly suppressed, but the Islamic currents got good opportunities for their activities, which resulted in a significant strengthening of the Islamic structure and propagation of Islamic commandments among population.

1963 uprising led by Khomeini was originally formed in protest against the adoption of a special law which separated American citizens from the Iranians in the Iranian criminal law. The so-called "capitulation" law for Americans in Iran - by Khomeini and his followers – was considered as "humiliating a country with a rich history and a well-developed system of justice" (ibid, 41).

Basically after Mossadegh's fall, many Iranians believed that Western states with U.S. at the head had a crucial role in the Shah's return to the power and stabilize his regime, which had created a "deeply ant-American character". It was actually a character that had cast shadow over 1979 revolution (Gasiorowski, 2004: 261).

When the relationship between the Shah and religious circles ten years after Mossadegh's fall was no longer a friendly relationship, Ayatollah Khomeini as head of the Islamic radical insurgency took advantage of this "anti-American character" in the direction of his attack against the Shah.

The collision between the Shah's regime and Islamic currents, which ended with Khomeini's exile, was the foundation of the Islamic movement, which led to the takeover of power through the 1979 revolution.

Against this background one can understand why Muslim leaders do 1963 uprising enlarge and use it as one of the historic reasons for the hostile relationship with the U.S.

Therefore the claim of dissatisfaction with the 1953 coup against Mosaddegh is doubtful. The allegation of discontent with U.S. involvement in the 1953-coup is being used to the purpose of legitimizing the continuous implacable tone against the United States and as one of the excuses behind the "embassy occupation". But when Muslim clerics do not authorize Mosaddegh's supporters for holding a memorial ceremony for him, the claim may not be verified.

A historical / ideological hatred

To provide an overview of the background to today's conflict between Iran and the U.S. we have to go back in history and look at the issue in a larger perspective. It is necessary to study the historical background of the conflict between the West and Islamism in general and between the U.S. and Iran specifically.

I believe that the conflict between these two countries is a part of a chain of a major conflict between the Western world on the one side and Islamic movements, which developed between the First and the Second World War on the other side.

Nevertheless, the two parties after the Second World War came close to each other so that they worked together in many areas. This occurred against the background of the formation of an alliance, and thus a common front against the "enemy", namely the communist camp. There is much evidence that the West headed by the USA has helped to establish or develop and support many of the religious movements in general, and specifically Islamic groups, e.g. Ikhvan al-Muslimin in Egypt, Salafism in Saudi Arabia, Taliban in Afghanistan, etc.

But after the end of the Cold War era the circumstances changed, so that the former enemies again got the opportunity to focus on each other.

"Globalization" has been one factor among many factors that provoked Islamist forces and strengthened Islamic movements among the mass people in Islamic countries.

The theory of "social movement" and more specific "Islamism" are also theories, which can explain some dimensions of the disputed relationship between the today's greatest power on the earth and one of the most radical governments in the Islamic world.

"Globalization" can be considered as one of the factors that have helped to intensify the development of many contemporary religious movements around the world. It is my opinion that these movements can be considered as one of many responses to the idea of a globalized world. The western expansionism in a long time has shown its interest in globalization.

In 1947 President Truman used the word global, when he expressed the desire for a global containment of the communist threat.

In this direction there were created a strategic alliance between "the West" and Islamic currents in the years after World War II, while from time to time some problems aroused between the Western world and Islamic leaders and organizations.

From the early 20th century, the technology-based modern civilization has been subjected to criticism. The criticism that was based on the perception of an inconsistent relationship between the modern civilization and divine values was directed not only by those who came from the non-modern world, but also intellectuals who belonged to the West. In 1935 the Nobel Prize winner Alexis Carrel launched a harsh criticism against the technologically-based western civilization, which he believed to be inconsistent with human nature. Carrel emphasized man's need for "spiritual values" (Drouard 1995).

One could say that the modern world already in the 20th century's first decades begins to challenge the Muslim world and opens a door to the development of an Islamic critique of the modernity (Gershoni & Jankowski 1986).

In this direction, the famous Iranian writer Al-e Ahmad in 1962 wrote a book entitled "Gharbzadegi" which means "struck by the west". He considered the influence of the Western culture in Iran as a disease that was expanded everywhere in the country and particularly spread to intellectuals, technocrats and skilled people. The book was very well known and popular among intellectuals in what was then the Iranian society.

The development of Islamic forces in Iran after the 1963 uprising was coupled with a kind of populism because of Khomeini's exile. In 1963, Khomeini attacked the West very hard, which led to a special popularity for Khomeini and his supporters among the population. Khomeini tried to connect a "religious discontent with the Shah's regime" to a "popular natural discontent" but from the outset, he stressed that it was "an Islamic movement".

Under the Cold War there existed a hope - albeit unstable - of closer relationship between the Iranian theocracy and the U.S. Iran was in the neighbourhood of the USSR - as its northern neighbour. It was very important for the U.S. to prevent Iran from falling into the hands of USSR. "By the mid-1980s, the U.S. bureaucracy was growing more concerned that Iran´s isolation could only benefit the Soviet Union in the Middle East" (Takeyh, 2009: 50). Afghanistan's occupation by Soviet troops and an Iranian-US common resistance to the occupation, according to Takeyh, had created an opportunity for dialogue and improvement of relations between these two countries (ibid, 51).

In this situation, the radical groups in the Islamic regime would not allow an improvement in relations between those two countries. Therefore, the more moderate forces could not advance their ideas about a normalized relationship with the global community in general and the U.S. specifically.

After the Eastern Bloc's collapse many of the political formulas lost their validity - so that Francis Fukuyama called that historic event "The End of History" (1992) - but new formulas replaced the former. The end of the Cold War, the emergence of an empty space due to the end of several decades of bickering between West and East, and finally subsequent political upheavals in the socialist camp now gave both the West and "the political Islam" the opportunity to experience new sides of each other.

On the one side many Islamic leaders and organizations began to challenge the West, and on the other side the West itself had also needed a new enemy.

Since, many studies have been performed and many articles are written about the relationship between the West and "the political Islam". A random review of some relevant research works can immediately observe that concepts such as Islamism, fundamentalism, extremism, radicalization, etc. are used in a high degree in the last 20 years.

The good enemy

The construction of the "good enemy" has rather an internal (domestic) consumption than being a means to use against the external "enemy". Takeyh finds "domestic political rivalries" and "fears of a potential U.S.-sponsored coup" as two reasons behind the "embassy occupation" (Takeyh, 2009: 40).

It is difficult to absolutely agree with Takeyh on the second cause, namely "the fears of a coup", but we can say that the main reason, which Takeyh points out, may in fact be associated to a form of eradication of rival groups, who the radical Muslims headed by the radical clerics had perceived as blockade in the way of a consummated acquisition of power. The attempt of elimination and finally overthrow of Bazargan's interim government is one of many more examples of the internal war in "the Islamic governance". Despite Bazargan's non-alignment foreign policy, he was willing to a non-hostile relationship with the U.S.

Takeyh also mentions one - perhaps less important - factor behind the "occupation" and the radical leaders' desire for a militarized foreign policy (ibid, 40). This is something, which basically is derived from the main cause, as above mentioned.  

"Militarisation" may always be used by undemocratic regimes in order to maintain the country in a state where people's attention is constantly directed against "the enemy".

Regarding Iran under the Islamic theocracy, and according to many analysts a crisis have been inevitable to create from the regime's side, which Takeyh also believes that "it is hard to believe that he (Khomeini) would not have instigated a crisis that would achieve all of these objectives" (Takeyh, 2009: 41).  

"The embassy occupation" has been a so critical feature from the radical wing of the revolutionary forces, why they called the occupation as "a second revolution that in many ways was more important than the first" (ibid, 42).  

Despite doubts and disagreements among scholars, historians and experts about the extent to which the external factor has been decisive or not in the 1953 events, the Iranian rulers after the 1979 revolution used the 1953-coup as a reason for a hostile relationship with the U.S. Although there are strong disagreements with Mosaddegh's way among the current rulers of Iran and despite spreading the "Mosaddegh resistance" tendency among radical Islamists they still point on 1953-coup as a knot in the relationship between those two countries.

Indispensable realities, despite political hatred

The realities may at any time make themselves visible, but it depends on the political regime, whether it handles the situation in a reasonable manner, or simply passing situation unwise.

From the first day after the revolution the Islamic regime in Iran could understand the realities, just as they were aware that there were some conventions and agreements that no other country could easily breaching, however in parallel with the consolidation of its power, the regime closed its eyes to these realities because the Muslim rulers believed in their strength, so they did not find it necessary to bow down to or at least respect the usual customs and conventions of international relations. Three days after the revolution - February 14th 1979 - the U.S. embassy was occupied by a group of students. The new rulers condemned the occupation, the embassy personnel were free, tight security measures were in place and they regretted the offense, "not only did the crisis pass easily, but, through an intermediary, Khomeini even issued an apology to Ambassador William Sullivan, who was still in Tehran" (Takeyh, 2009: 39), but when the embassy in November the same year - for the second time - was occupied, the situation was different.

No matter how hostile a relationship between two countries is, one cannot deny the reality that both countries sometimes have to put adversarial methods, downplay provocative language, and more sensible to go in a direction of negotiation with the "enemy" on compromise-demanding problems. Particularly in the case of two countries like Iran and U.S., which for decades has had economic, trade, political and diplomatic relations, one can not eliminate all forms of relationship, dialogue and contact between the two countries' authorities.

One of those "almost inevitable" contacts, which, despite persistent hostile tones between Iran and the United States took place, was a series of secret meetings and indirect negotiations for the supply of some military equipment to the Iranian military apparatus. At that time Iran was in war with neighbouring Iraq, and thus had extreme need for renewal of an important part of its military technologies, which during the Shah's time had become much Americanized and extremely dependent on American aid. Although the volume of the supplied military equipment was very limited, the contact between these two countries' agents led to a whole lot of surprises, questions, analysis, and criticisms among friends and enemies. The negotiations later became known as "Iran-Contra Scandal".

At that time the situation was characterized by chaos related to the war between Iran and Iraq, Iranian interferences in Lebanon's internal affairs as well as Iranian role as "the biggest supporter" and "sponsor" to southern Lebanon's Shiite groups and their "operations" and violent acts against Israeli and American interests in the region. The Israelis feared for Iraq's possession of "atom weapons", and Reagan administration was under internal pressure to free the American hostages in Lebanon. These and other events made the situation very chaotic and complicated.

In such a situation several factors for the inevitable "dialogue" were present. Therefore, a series of secret meetings and agreements between the Iranians and the Americans was formed.

The circumstances showed some indispensable realities that could not be overlooked; realities which according to Takeyh "mandated some adjustments and even a re-examination of the country's ties with the "Great Satan" (ibid, 49).

Takeyh believes this tactical dialogue could not be interpreted as a return to a sensible policy, and thus relationship with the U.S., but that it was actually a prioritization of enemies. The Americans had landed in a situation that made Iranians' influence on Shiite groups in southern Lebanon as the golden key to solve the hostage problem. The Iranians could use this influence in connection with the liberation of the hostages. They were in turn aware of this reality that without American military technology they were not able to cope with the war fronts against Iraq's military, which at that time were armed and supported by both its Arab and Western allies.

USA's position in relation to the revolution

A foreign policy, which a given government implements cannot be completely independent of the country's overall foreign policy in relation to the world. The central goal of overall foreign policy of a country is usually the country's economic and political interests. Despite fluctuations and adjustments from one government to another is always decisions based on national interests, which are mostly casts shadow over their relations with other countries. This rule can be deviated from the "usual" situation, when there is a fundamental change e.g. a revolution.

In the relation between Iran and the U.S., it was in Iran that a revolution happened (in 1979), but not in the USA. The Iranian foreign policy as all other aspects of the country and all other policies were subjected to revolutionary and significant upheaval. It was therefore not unexpected that the country's stance in relation to previous friends and enemies should now be changed and restructured. U.S. however still followed the previous foreign policy in relation to Iran. The policy could not adapt to the new demands and expectations from the Iranians. A historical review of the events in the relationship between these two countries by the 1979 revolution can give this impression that U.S. could not even have an understanding or at least show some understanding of the revolutionary frustration and hatred of the former regime's biggest supporters. Under such a situation it is also impossible to change (or deviate from) the dominated political discourse in relation to a country, which for decades has been widespread and used in a political arena.

All the revolutionaries during the 1979 revolution condemned the U.S., based on the impression that the U.S. was the strongest backup for the Shah. Under such a situation, the most sensible official policy from U.S. over Iran could perhaps be a foreign policy where U.S as far as possible did not interfere, so that it kept away from a revolutionary chaos marked by contradictory argumentations from different positions about who was the "friend" and who was the "enemy".

The revolution and the chaotic situation in all aspects including on the political scene did that many former friends and foes of the former regime soon began to adjust their political relationship with Iran based on their analyzes and justifications related to the revolution's consequences, but USA's analysis of the situation was not something to be made quick and easy.

Viewed from another angle, in this situation it could be difficult for the U.S. to remain silent in relation to arrests, unfair hearings and executions of people who former (under the Shah) were USA's allies and "to remain silent with regard to such flagrant perversions of justice" (Takeyh, 2009: 37). A superpower like the United States (under the "Cold War" against the USSR, the other superpower) was in a way forced to show his other (standing) allies around the world that USA would not let them alone, but it would support them under all circumstances. Therefore, the U.S. could not let it be to condemn the arrests, interrogations and executions of the Shah's related men. But the condemnations led to even more hostility from the radical forces in Iran.

What now?

The relationship between these two countries is now very critical. In recent times, the situation became more tense. From both sides, they have gone as far as a return to a normal situation today can be seen very difficult. Especially for the Iranians' side, it is gone so far in an aggressive and uncompromising way, which has been at the expense of eliminating many internal rival individuals and groups. The theocracy regime today can get really difficult to declare failure and to take a different path than the past.

References:

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Article Source: http://www.articlesbase.com/politics-articles/relationship-between-iran-and-the-us-6680484.html

About the Author

With a background as Cand.scient.soc. from Aalborg University, Denmark, Shokrollah Kamari Majin works currently as a social worker in Helsingor, Denmark. In addition, he trained Middle East Studies at the Master's degree at the University of Odense, Denmark. He is interested in studies dealing with the relationship between power and religion with special focus on the Middle East as the regional interest area. Additionally, he works with IR theories. Currently, he is Ph.D. student at the Institute of International Relations, Warsaw University, Poland.