Game Theory in International Relations

                      According to this realist approach in international relations is that the nation-states behaviours depend on their own interests. Additionally, they consider each other's interest only if this interest is damanded by threatening or by use of power.

                     Nation-States do not act like humans and their acts do not rely on humanitarian basics. Even the mutually signed international agreements according to the procedures of the international law do not limit their actions. When this concept is practiced in social real-life relations the actors would be radically self-centered and only pursuing their own interests.

                    On the other hand, in Game Theory determanants of actions are not studied.

                    Regarding the defence alliances between the countries for instance. 2-3 countries can come together and form a defence force against an external threat. This is win-win situation as in the Prisoner's Dilemma. Each member benefits and provide multi protection and confirm not to attack to each other.

                   In arms race for instance each nation-states try to incerase their military capacity up to limits and they do not take into consideration "fix-limits".
                 
                    Cuban Missile Crisis can be a good example for game theory. For the USA there was two options whether to attack missile installations in Cuba or blockade Cuba and prevent future installations and for the USSR again two options; taking back the missiles or insisting on building them in Cuba. At the end both countries have been met in win-win situation again and against withdrawing the missiles in Cuba, Jupiter missiles were taken back from Turkey by the USA.

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International Politics : Samuel P. Huntington - The Clash of Civilizations

             Huntington in his theory specifies that the era of ideologies and conflicts between has ended now the rivalry is between the civilizations. According to him the main conflicts in the future will occur because of the differences between the cultures. Especially after the cold-war the importance of the conflict in civilizations or cultural conflicts has increased.

            He mentiones main civilizations in the world as:

            Western Civilization: Western Europe, Northern America, Australia and New Zealand.
            Orthodox Countries: Russia, Serbia, Montenegro, Bulgaria, Greece
            Latin America: Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Colombia, Chile, Mexico...
            Islamic Countries:  Middle East, Central Asia, North Africa, Indonesia, Pakistan, Somalia
            India : Continental India and Nepal
            China: Including Korea, Vietnam and Taiwan
            Japan: Mixture of Chinese and Altaic civilization
         
           Apart from these main types according to Huntington's theory there are also isolated countries like Israel, Turkey, Ethiopia which do not belong any of the above mentioned groups.

           According to his theory Russia and India; China and Iran are natural allies.
   
           
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International Politics : Francis Fukuyama - The End of History

              To begin with , liberalism, according to Fukuyama is the end point of historical stream. With the term "end of the history" he actually means after all search and investigation of history to explore the welfare society "liberalism" is the end line.

              Liberal democracy at the end will be the dominant ruling system. There are two reasons for this opinion, first dominant over the natural sciences and consequently development of the technology and utilizing this technology for the welfare of the society and increasign military power as the time passes combines all nation states under a single title which is liberalism by losing all cultural differences .

             Secondly, dialectic, originally Hegel's dialectic, according to this history finds himself naturally at liberalism at the end with dialectic by passing the stages of thesis, anti-thesis and synthesis. According to the above mentioned two theories liberalism is an inevitable end of each state as the other ideologies can not fulfill the requirements of welfare state and freedom.

             

International Politics : The Great Middle East Project

             Great Middle East is mostly a political term rather than geographical. The countries in the mentioned term is beginning from Morrocco in the West and till Pakistan in the East also consisting the countries like Turkey, Israel, Iran, Jordan...The map was originally prepared by Lieutenant Colonel Ralph Peters.

            As mentioned in the journals it is also considered as a plan to redraw the middle east map. In the mentioned map actually many Middle East countries like Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iran, Pakistan were shown divided. This "project" seems like the plan for division and pacification of the region. Secondly a founding a route to Central Asia in order to prevent a future Russian expansion in the area. Thirdly and most importantly the region mentioned in the map hold most of the global energy sources and trade routes at one hand and any power which may be able to obtain authority in this region become absolute dominant party in global affairs.

        The above mentioned area was also considered to be the "Eurasian Balkans" which means obtaining too much ethnics and ready to live civil wars and uprisings.  The "map" for some scholars is to identify the possible peaceful living areas without a problem.

   

World News : Syrian Civil War - Bashar al-Assad against Free Syrian Army

        The ongoing civil war in Syria which was started on March,2011 can be candidate for one of the most brutal wars in world history. Started as peaceful demonstrations but in following days became a horrible war between Syrian Army and the uprising groups. The opposition was composed of civilians and also escaped officers from the army who did not want to involve in these violence against civilians.

       Additionally, Hezbollah also sent troops to fight together with Syrian Army against oppositon. Apart from the Hezbollah, Syrian Ba'ath Government and Army headed by Bashar al-Assad also got support from Iran, Russia and China. As known the last two are the members of the UN security council and have vote to effect the decisions. On the other hand, the opposition is supported by Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

        The picture in Syria now seems like a rivalry between Alawite Shabiha militias, Syrian Army and Sunni opposition groups.

        As a result of this rivalry unfortunately many innocent people lose their lives and it seems if UN or NATO does not intervene many more will die until the end of this war. Russia and China continue to prevent an international intervention whereas Turkey aims to stop this civil war immediately with an international force.
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World News : Protests in Ukraine - Ukraine and EU Negotiations

            Ukraine was about to sign a cooperation agreement with EU which has been suspended by Ukrainian parliament because pressure by Russia eventhough the Ukranian citizens demand the continuation of the process. It seems that imperial Russia unfortunately still has power of influence in Ukraine and trying to prevent its integration with European Union. EU has condemned Russia regarding the political crisis. Protesters in Kiev by the way clashed with the police forces.

           It is interesting that despite most of the people in Ukraine demands close relationship with the EU, the parliament can suspend the negotiations.

           Following the memberships of Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Czech Republic and Croatia, Ukraine is the latest fortification of Russia which should be protected from the EU. Lastly, Russian government indicates that the situation in Ukraine is getting out of control and all unrest had been caused of Western Powers.

Theories on Israel, Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia Foreign Relations

                      Anti-Hegemonic coalition is one of the most discussed subject in International Relations. In the Middle East it is difficult to answer. "Which country is the "hegemonic power" in the reigon? The candidates are Israel, Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia if we consider today's global military and political structure.

                   To begin with, Israel with its well developped military industry, utilization of technology and global political support seems a little bit further among the countries mentioned above. It has also powerful intelligence institutions like Mossad which can operate globally. Israel today has the ability to manufacture its own battle tanks "Merkava" and combat aircrafts planes like Kfir. Not only in military but also in other manufacturing industries and agriculture new technologies are adopted by many Israeli companies. In global issues it has also economical and political support from the USA. The negative aspect for Israel is energy resources. Today Israel lacks its own oil and gas resources and a great portion of these materials are being imported.

                    Second country which can be most powerful rival to Israel is Turkey. Following the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire, the Republic of Turkey today has strong industry and military. Many different raw materials and end-products can be produced today and the GDP of the country especially in the last 10 years increased drastically. Turkey has plans to produce it own battle tank "Altay" and "TAI" produces combat aircraft F-16s for a long time. Turkey like Israel lacks the oil and gas resources for its domestic industry use. Additionally, despite being a member of NATO, it also lacks a global political support.


                    Iran and Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, has natural resources like oil and gas and they are the biggest exporters of these material. Iran comparing to S.Arabia seems like having a stronger military power. It has rocketry technology and able to manufacture ballistic missiles with small and mid range. Not like Israel and Turkey but it has also developing industry. Today Iran has its own brand cars for middle class usage. Saudi Arabia on the other hand also has military and political support from the USA.

                     During the famous six-day war we have noticed an anti-hegemonic coalition between the Arab countries against Israel. Also same had happened against Turkey between Iran and Syria durign the Cold War especially. Middle East today has changing dynamics and the definition of "new coalitions" is very necessary.
                 

ISAF - International Security Assistance Force

           ISAF is NATO led mission, first started in 2001 with the decision of UN Security Council. Its primary target was to train Afghan Security forces and stimulate the establishment and well going of the government. Additionally, in health and construction issues ISAF also contributed too much Afghanistan. Headquartered in capital Kabul, many countries contributed to this international peace mission. United States, United Kingdom, Turkey, Germnay, France, Spain and also countries like Albania, Canada, Australia, Azerbaijan, Croatia, Malaysia, Mongolia, South Korea.... . Turkey also took command of ISAF in 2002 and 2005.

                                     

              Until now total 47 nations with nearly 97.000 troops have contributed to ISAF.
                                                 

World War II - Second World War - Hitler, Stalin and intervention of the USA

              WWII began in 1939 and lasted until 1945. The Allies in this war were Soviet Union, United States, United Kingdom, China, France, Greece, Yugoslavia and the Axis Powers were Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Romania and Bulgaria.

              With this war the world history came across with one of the brutal rulers in the world, Hitler.

         

           According to some historians WWII has caused the development of the strongest UN, NATO and also laid foundations for the formation of the European Union. Winston Churchill in his speech mentioned the necessity of  the establishment of a union in Europe which combines each member to each other both economically and politically and therefore creating more peaceful environment and prevent future wars between the members.

World War I - First World War - Eastern Question

              WWI began in 1914 and lasted until 1918. The Allies in this war were France, British Empire, Russia, Italy , United States, Serbia, Romania and the Central Powers were German Empire, Austria-Hungary, Ottoman Empire and Bulgaria.

               The war started with assasination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria by Gavrilo Princip who was the member of the so-called organization "Black Hand".

         
             According to some historians the lack of power in the Balkans especially after the weakining of Ottoman Empire had laid foundations for the WWI. The famous Eastern Question between the Great Powers begun actually following the Russo-Turkish War in 1774. The scenery after the war made the Great Powers to think on the future. What will happen after the possible dissolution of Ottoman Empire in the European territories (mostly in Balkans)?.

Yugoslavia : Dissolution Process - Struggle between Serbs and Croats

            Yugoslavia, on the Adriatic coast of Balkan peninsula was the country consisting many states in itself.  "Jug" means south, so the country name meant the southern Slavs. These states were Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia, Bosnia, Macedonia, Montenegro and Kosova have became independent countries afte the civil war. So the question is do the people miss  the Ex-Yugoslavia or are they satisfied with the recent situation?

             Beginning from Josip Broz Tito's rule Yugoslavia had survived a peaceful period since 1940s to 1980s. However , especially after the Tito's death in 1980, the historiacal struggles betwen the ethnic groups inside Yugoslavia had been active again and the civil war caused many deaths in all sides. The declaration of Indepence from Slovenia was followed by Croatia and than Bosnia. Serbs who were the dominant power in Ex-Yugoslavia have reacted violently to these declarations and declared war to Croatia and than Bosnia.

           Did all this bloodshed worth to reach to today's formation? Too many independent countries with small populations and weak industries. Each country now has its own flag but how many people now desire to unify again under Yugoslavia?

The Arab League : Expected to be more Dominant in World Politics

               Founded by the Cairo agreement in 1945, the Arab League consists of 21 member states. These are Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Lybia, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi, Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Tunisia, United Arap Emirates and Yemen. Its primary policy is to protect the political and economical interests of its members and strengthening the relationships between them and supervise their sovereignty.

             Policy towards Syrian Civil War: Aims to find a political solution for ongoing civil war in the country. Peace talks aimed to be started in 23rd of November in Geneva, however, Syrian government declared that they will not negotiate with the terrorists.

            Policy towards Israeli-Palestinian conflict: It boycotts Israel aiming to isolate Israel economically. For instance, there are still some countries for instance who do not accept Israeli passports which are Algeria, Bangladesh, Brunei, Iran, Kuwait, Lebanon, Malaysia, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Yemen...

           Regarding the civil war in Syria and the development of the region which Arab League countries located the Arab League is expected to be more active and re-organize its regulations and bodies according to the modern needs, additionally behave and decide in faster manner.

European Union - EU - Enlargement of Europe

             Today consisting 28 member states the European Union is the biggest economic cooperation in the world. Following the WWII, in 1957 started with the European Coal and Steel Community with the Treaty of Rome, it first evolved into EEC (European Economic Community) and finally to its recent formation of "European Union" with Maastricht Treaty. The primary aim of the community was to end the struggles in Europe which harmed too much and caused two big world wars.

             With customs union, there is free movement of the goods and labour between the member states. EU has its own legislative institutions like the European Parliament, The Council of the European Union, the European Commission, Court of Justice of European Union...etc. With well established economical and governmental institutions, functional regulations and monetary union (eurozone) today EU is the biggest rivals of the USA, China, Japan and India in economical and political terms which produces 20% of global gross domestic product. After the addition of Croatia in 2013, all member states can be stated as: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom. 

         The bolded ones are also NATO members. Switzerland and Norway refused to enter to the EU mostly of economical concerns.

         As specified above the last member was Croatia which was accepted in 2013. The question here now, will the European Union continue to expand or is this addition would be the last one? Has EU a policy towards Serbia, Macedonia, Azerbaijan and Turkey? Will these countries also be able to join the EU or wait some more time?

       

NATO and Its Future - NATO Expansion

               NATO ( North Atlantic Treaty Organization) today consists of 28 member states. Which are Albania, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkey, United kingdom and the United States). The basic idea of the NATO is to protect its members through political and military means.

              Founded in 1949, with the Washington Treaty,  as a protecting organization of peace in Cold War. NATO was really the only powerful structure at that times with its military. Every member country in NATO contributed in material and/or staff terms in NATO, which mostly done by the USA, and it aimed to sustain peace against its rival Soviet Union and its alliances "Warsaw Pact".

              The fall of Berlin Wall in 1989 not only changed many things globally but also the strcuture and organization of NATO. Starting from 1991, NATO contacted to the former members of the Warsaw Pact and the countries like Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Poland begun to be the members of NATO.

               

             Following the changes in the world and desolution of the Soviet Union, NATO continued its peackeeping mission in Afghanistan. ISAF (International Security  Assistance Force) with its headquarter in Kabul started to keep Afghanistan safe. ISAF also contirbuted many construction and maintenance works throughout the country. It had been contributed by many countries in the world, not only the NATO members like the USA, the UK, Turkey, Germany but also South Korea, Malaysia,  Macedonia, Azerbaijan. Together with the UN and EU, NATO, according to me is the most successful intenational organization which has an active agenda with many work that had to be completed and good historical background.

             As can be seen despite the politacal change in global terms NATO still is active and seems it will be the most active one in the following years among the other international groups and organizations.

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Barzani in Diyarbakir - Turkish Foreign Policy and Northern Iraq

                Iraqi Kurdish leader Massoud Barzani visits Diyarbakir city - Turkey. Together with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan he has made a public speech for the people in the city. Barzani's visit can be an important step towards a long term peace in the region. Especially for ending the Kurdish conflict in Turkey.

               A strong cooperation between Turkey and Northern Iraq would mean many oppurtunities in the region. Peace between them can lead to long term prosperity that had ever lived in Mesopotamia.

             In realpolitik, this is what Turkey should do actually. During the "Cold War" its foreign policies were much more tied to Western interests.In order not to lose time with inner struggles it should somehow find a way to decrease the tension and develop strong relationship with Northern Iraq. By this way in long term both Turkey and Northern Iraq will benefit from this peace. Of course this "close friendship" will have some rivalries and these countries will not be happy with this cooperation. Despite this kind of problems, Turkey should focus on this issue and should stop inner porblems fastly and try to find ways to develop relationships with Northern Iraq and later with Azerbaijan and Georgia.

               

World Politics - A Shining Star in Caspian Sea : Azerbaijan

              With its capital, Baku, today Azerbaijan seems to be the major actors in its region and also in the Middle East. After its independence from the Soviet Union, there had been a considerable development both in social and economical terms.

               Pipelines through Georgia to Turkey was a good start for the integration to the international markets. It is rich in oil and natural gas, oil exploration is still going on and Azerbaijan is spoted to be one of the biggest suppliers of the natural goods mentioned above. These income coming from the export of gas and oil is wisely invested in the infrastructure of manufacturing industry and the development in the economy can be seen in the increase of the business registrations. Additionally, with its strong historical ties to Turkey it is also able to reach European market. In addition to these tourism, technology and agriculture are the developing industries. Most of the agricultural products are produced domestically.

               To sum, in the next 5 years, it is very obvious that we will be hearing the name "Azerbaijan" more and more.

Close Look At The Countries in the Middle East

Syria - (Official Name: Syrian Arab Republic) 

Population: 22.500.000

Capital : Damascus

Area: 186.475 square kilometres

Currency : Syrian Pound

GDP: 107.6 billion $

Largest Cities: Aleppo, Lattakia, Homs, Hama

Religion: Mostly Sunni and Shia, also Christian fragments

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Iran - (Official Name: Islamic Republic of Iran)

Population : 77.176.000

Area : 1.648.185 square kilometres

Currency: Rial

GDP: 1.016 trillion $

Largest Cities: Tehran, Mashdad, Isfahan

Religion: Shia and some Sunni Fragment

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Turkey - (Official Name: Republic of Turkey)

Population : 75.620.000

Area : 783.562 square kilometres

Currency: Turkish Lira

GDP: 1.142 trillion $

Largest Cities: Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir

Religion: Sunni, some christian fragments

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Israel - (Official Name: State of Israel)

Population : 8.000.000

Area : 20.770 square kilometres

Currency: Shekel

GDP: 252.8 billion $

Largest Cities: Tel Aviv, Haifa, Jerusalem

Religion: Judaism

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Saudi Arabia - (Official Name: Kingdom of Saudi Arabia)

Population : 29.195.000

Area : 2.149.000  square kilometres

Currency: Riyal

GDP : 927.1 billion $

Largest Cities: Riyadh, Mecca, Jeddah

Religion: Sunni

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Egypt - (Official Name: Arab Republic of Egypt)

Population : 84.000.000

Area : 1.000.000 square kilometres

Currency: Egyptian Pound

GDP : 548.8 billion $

Largest Cities: Cairo, Alexandria, Giza

Religion: Sunni

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Azerbaijan - (Official Name: Republic of Azerbaijan)

Population : 9.300.000

Area : 86.600 square kilometres

Currency: Manat

GDP: 98.36 billion $

Largest Cities: Baku, Ganja, Sumqayit

Religion: Shia and Sunni

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Iraq - (Official Name: Republic of Iraq)

Population : 31.129.000

Area : 438.317 square kilometres

Currency: Dinar

GDP: 242.5 billion $

Largest Cities: Baghdad, Mosul, Basra

Religion: Sunni and Shia

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World Politics - Turkey: A Rising Power

        Turkey, comparing to its foreign policy of 1970s looks like more powerful and confident now. Especially in the last 2-3 years we may see its effects in Northern Iraq, Syria, Azerbaijan, Balkans and the EU.

         After trying to enter to the EU and spending most of its energy, Turkey now decided to turn its eye on its neighbors again. Now it is developing a relationship with Northern Iraq in economical aspects, in Syria also has a clear policy and aiming to reach a peace at the end. Nowadays with Bulgaria and Greece, both of which were the problematic issues for Turkey, also developing relationships and in the last 5 years there had been no serious problem with both of the countries mentioned above. Additionally, with Israel it seems everything will be better in the near future.

        Istanbul, old capital, now becoming a trade center of the Middle East, which includes two big international airports (third one is projected in the north of the city). Many peace conferences between the Middle Eastern countries are now being held in Istanbul. Big underground projects like Marmara Subway represents Turkey's ambition to be a leader and dominant power in the region. 

         In the future, to my mind, Turkey should have much closer relationships with the countries like Israel, Azerbaijan and Gulf Region countries for its own benefits. A highway can be established between Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan. A kind of customs union can also be signed between these countries. I believe with the help of this union all three countries will benefit and improve their economies. This small union can also be a starting point for a bigger organization which can spread to all Middle East. 

          

Tips on the Countries in the World

               Until the year 2013, there are 196 countries. South Sudan is the newest member among these countries. Biggest country in territory is Russia, than Canada and China and China is also the most populous one, than India and the USA.

               UN (United Nations- founded in 1945) is the only body which try to organize international relations and disputes among the countries. OPEC, EU, EFTA.

               Flags of the countries : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cC_0AfMUKQA

               Flags of international organizations: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IYloxRQXA1E&feature=youtu.be

               Flags of NATO members: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14vEMMPBJew&feature=youtu.be

               Flags of EU members: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tkEFFzG9BVI&feature=youtu.be


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International Affairs Blog Directory

Projecting The Year 2050

                       Did you ever think what will be in the next 50 years? Not only in your private life but also globally what will happen really? To my mind next decades will be very difficult test for history of the world.

                       Apart from the global warming and the melting of the ice in north pole and becoming of Greenland as really a Greenland cleared from its ice surface, world politics and relationship between the states seems to change also. The first big test would be North Korea, which will increase its military capacity and could have more developed rocket technology in the following years. Second problem looks like Iran, which may conclude the nuclear tests and became a nuclear power. And the possible reaction of Israel towards this development is also unknown. According to me,  the third problem would be Serbia, which may try to finish the uncompleted job in Bosnia and stimulate the independence of Republic of Sırpska in Bosnia and Herzegovina federation. All these challenges looks like to effect the history of the world.

                       What can be done? For North Korea, the solution would be the integration with the South Korea and form a single Korean Republic and developing the North in all economical and social ways. Regarding the Iran, very difficult, but an economical union between middle east countries including Israel sounds like the only solution. And for Serbia, hopefully, they can be accepted to the EU in a very near future therefore there would not be a radical nationalist political party which has interests on Bosnia.

For Peaceful Cooperation - Middle Eastern Union

            What if all Middle Eastern countries would unite together in an organization like European Union. Suppose a Union starting from Turkey in the West, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan in North, Afghanistan, Pakistan in the East and Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Oman in South. Very large area including many opportunities. Suppose a semi-trailer loaded with goods is on a high way starting from Oman going to Baku without any customs or fees. And returning back from Baku with loaded goods again to Cairo this time again without any visa and customs.

               Turkey, Israel, Iran, Azerbaijan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt.....which have enormous natural resources, trading experiences, numerous ports and developed industries. Suppose all these countries came together and formed Middle Eastern Union - lets call it MEU -. As it is now in the EU all countries would be combined to each other in economical terms and maybe also they can form a common domestic and foreign policies. Saudi Arabia investing in Azerbaijan, Turkey exporting directly to Oman with any customs fees and in fastest way. All countries are connected with each other with a developed high way and railway network system. An Afghan student can be graduated from a university in Ankara, Turkey or an Iranian salesman can establish a trading company in Israel. Samples can be plural if we think. MEU, it sounds very nice, isn't it?

Entry to the Politics: Middle East

                   Comparing to 1000 years ago, today, the Middle East looks like more civilized region.  The countries themselves are not dealing with horrible wars between each other continuously like Babylonians, Sumerians and Assyrians or Egyptians and Hittites do. Of course there are some problems now in Iraq and Syria however this turmoil is not widespread in the region.

                 Three powers in the region seems to try to gain power among the others. There three are Israel, Iran and  Saudi Arabia. Egypt may be counted on the side of Saudi Arabia in this game.  Turkey, Russia, EU, China and the US are watchers and sometimes supporters or of these three fragments. This rivalry as mentioned at the beginning looks like a competition in diplomacy mostly. It looks like Cold War of Middle East version. If we were in Babylonians time normally these three should fight with each other up to the end, consequently this fight would end with the termination of at least two of these civilizations.

              Thanks to the diplomacy and secret intelligence agencies nowadays this kind of rivalry can only be seen on the news TV channels like BBC, CNN...etc sometimes,  but most of the theatre between them is invisible for the ordinary people like us.

              Gaining power and becoming a dominant in all aspects in the Middle East looks very difficult. Because all these three would like to be the only king of the region, any rise of power is coming across with an anti-hegemonical power. When Iran goes further a little bit, it can find itself with an obstacle or same for Israel. In logic, Shia Iran should be the best friend of Israel against Sunni Saudi Arabia because of historical reasons. As Iran should deal not only with Saudi Arabia but also Qatar, Jordan, Egypt, Oman and Sunni parts of Iraq and Syria. And same for Israel.

           Therefore in logic Israel and Iran need to combine their power against the others mentioned above. On the other hand, they look like they are busy with dealing with each other. If we consider the words as real Israel and Iran defeated themselves at least 10 times in the past 3 years.

            Turkey here can be the most strongest fortification. Although its politics are focused on the EU, in the last 2 or 3 years they also begun to intervene in the Middle East at least to protect their own interests. They are developing good relationships with northern Iraq which is not good for Iran and also watching closely the Palestine Problem which is not good for Israel. On the paper it looks like a chess game with multi combinations. Syria problem for instance, Iran gives endless support to the government together with Russia and China both having a power in security council of the UN. Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar on the other hand seems supporting the uprisings. There is one empty point here: The decision of he US and the EU.

         It seems they did not decide yet and the turmoil in Syria seems to continue for at least 1-2 years. Than which solution would be best for which country? In Afghanistan everything settled and Taliban lose power. This was good for both the US and Iran. In the Iraq, a peaceful northern federation, a Sunni center and Shia South were acceptable again for the US and Iran and also Turkey with some reservations. Now Syria can follow the Iraq policy. An Alawite state on the coast, a Sunni republic and a Shia republic. Additionally maybe a federal region on the north for the Kurds which implies Switzerland confederation model.

        What will happen in the future of Syria mostly depends on the negotiations between the powers that will be known by us maybe 10 years later. But it is very obvious that an invisible war is happening between them and the results would be seen clearly when this Cold War of Middle East version is completed.